pebblewriter

Tag: durable goods

  • Charts I’m Watching: Feb 27, 2024

    Durable goods ex transportation fell by 0.3% in January, slightly more than expected. Futures rose slightly on the print, but are essentially flat ahead of the important consumer confidence reading.

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  • Some Like It Hot

    If you’re a retailer, you might be thrilled with the personal income and personal spending beat last month (0.4% vs 0.3% exp and 0.8% versus 0.4% expected.) If you’re a manufacturer, you might be pleased with durable goods coming in at a +1.1% versus the -1.3% expected.

    But, if you’re a member of the FOMC, you have to be chagrined that those hot numbers, combined with hotter core and headline PCE and tightening credit conditions, will force tighter monetary conditions.  The algos agreed for a few minutes, but were quickly reminded of the requirement to take their cues from VIX.

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  • Durable Orders’ Mixed Bag

    There’s something in March’s durable orders report for both bulls and bears. The 3.2% topline number was wildly better than the 0.7% expected and -1.2% previous.  But, it was driven primarily by large Boeing orders.

    Non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.4%. And core shipping logged another 0.4% drop.

    Stocks were little phased, as they’re still marching to VIX’s drumbeat. But, the 2Y is back below 4% as First Republic reminds us that the banking crisis has not gone away.

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  • Happy Thanksgiving

    I want wish all our members a safe and enjoyable holiday. We will take Friday off and be back on Monday, Nov 28.

    Markets staged a little celebration of their own yesterday, with ES slipping back up above the 10-day moving average and 3.618 Fib – a gizzard’s throw away from the 200-day.

    Otherwise, not much drama around the dinner table other than XLE failing again at its 93.31 double top as a rather inebriated CL stumbled and fell. The divergence is really quite stunning.

    Durable goods came in much stronger than expected. Keep in mind that new home sales and Michigan sentiment will be released at 10am and Oct Fed minutes at 2pm.

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