pebblewriter

Tag: market

  • A Break or a Breakdown?

    The 10Y yield has clearly broken trend as expected, with a couple of Fib tests the only things standing between it and our downside targets.  Our 28.56 upside target from Jan 10 [see: China – It’s Not Me, It’s You] has officially yielded. This is what stocks were waiting for — a sign that interest rates’ climb past 3% wasn’t as certain as most analysts suggested.  ES broke out of its slump and pressed on to new highs, finally joining SPX in regaining its 2.24 Fib extension.

    This leaves our analog on track with our next targets easily in reach.  It also confirms the time adjustment that was suggested by the most recent dip and the redrawing of VIX’s (and everything else’s) path for the next six weeks.

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  • One Way or Another

    After allowing a six-session slump (that saw SPX nail our downside target), The Powers That Be can be forgiven for insisting on an overnight ramp job.Last night, it was USDJPY pushing through horizontal resistance, VIX getting clobbered through three separate moving averages, and oil continuing a nice bounce off our 48.63 target.  It should be enough to get SPX up over its SMA10 on the opening bell.

    Since the bounce is mostly about oil’s “recovery,” we’ll focus today on what to expect over the next few weeks.

    Oh, and for those of you who clicked on this post expecting to get their Debbie Harry fix, HERE YOU GO.

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  • A Good Crisis Pays Off

    With the S&P futures off around 100 points Tuesday night, I noted that if the selloff lasted, SPX had a very good chance of tagging the .786 retracement at 2034.97 the next day.  Instead, we got the biggest overnight turnaround since Mar 2009 and a breakout of the channel SPX has been in for the past three months.  What happened, and why?2016-11-10-usdjpy-daily-0605

    While most analysts were scratching their heads over the repercussions of a Trump presidency, central planners were busy ramping USDJPY for all it was worth.  Just this morning, it reached our next upside target — a rally of over 5% in about 24 hours.

    Was this merely a case of not letting a good crisis go to waste, or is there something more fundamentally bullish at work here?

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  • Next Steps

    We’ve been watching a triangle form for over a month, wondering whether/when it would break out or break down. Yesterday, we got our answer.

    After coming within .40 of our 2170-2173 target on Monday, the triangle broke down — despite vigorous intraday ramping in USDJPY and CL.  Tuesday’s initial downside target at 2150 was taken out without any difficulty.

    New market-health-indicator Deutsche Bank, which reached our 13.98 target (+18.7%) from our bottom call on Sep 27, is wavering.  Having briefly pushed through resistance, it’s now clinging to support.2016-10-12-db-60-0600What’s next for stocks?

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