PCE (+0.4%) came in slightly higher than consensus (+0.3%.)  Core PCE was in line with expectations at +0.3% MoM and 3.7% YoY. Personal spending (+0.7%), however, was well above consensus (0.5%, 0.4% prior) and personal income (0.3%.)

In other words, spending increased faster than income. As discussed yesterday, this speaks to a slowing nominal inflation rate in the face of already high prices that are pinching those whose savings are depleted.

Yesterday, ES nailed our 4153 target from July……and has since bounced modestly on the PCE data and AMZN‘s earnings.

continued for members…

Note that I have adjusted the timing of some of our downside targets.

VIX remains constrained, thus supporting stocks. While EURUSD is taking advantage of equities bounce to break slightly lower. Nothing new for USDJPY, but that could change when NKD reaches its SMA200. Oil and gas are up slightly… …pinning the 10Y just below 5%.