Stocks have been on a tear since last October’s lows, when the narrative around inflation began to tilt toward a Fed rate hike pause or even a reversal. CPI had fallen from 9.06 to 7.75 and, thanks to falling oil/gas prices, was on its way lower.

Interest rates paid attention, too. The 10Y, which had topped out at 4.33% on Oct 21, began zigzagging lower, reaching 3.25 by Apr 6. Even when it rebounded, it managed to hold to a falling trend line from October. So, what does it mean now that the 10Y has broken out?

continued for members…

It’s a rhetorical question, of course. A breakout in rates mean the bond market is finally calling BS on the idea of a Fed pause/reversal – at least any time soon.

Even currencies are supporting the bears today… …as are oil/gas. Stay tuned…