pebblewriter

Tag: market

  • Charts I’m Watching: Oct 25, 2023

    Futures are off moderately following a big slide in GOOGL shares. AAPL and AMZN are also off.

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  • Powell Speaks

    Futures have bounced back from overnight lows in advance of Jay Powell’s comments at 12pm ET at the Economic Club of NY.

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  • VIX: Decision Time

    VIX’s constant slide has been one of the best indicators of the runaway bullishness over the past 10 months. Over the past week, however, it has soared to new highs, reaching our 200-day moving average target well ahead of schedule. What does it portend for equities?

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 8, 2023

    Futures are down sharply as yesterday’s currency moves and VIX smackdown are being unwound by Moody’s banking downgrades.  At least banks aren’t waking up to a 40% windfall profit tax such as Italy just imposed.

    This timely bit of truthiness certainly has the potential to get ES to our SMA50 target in the lead up to Thursday’s CPI print. As for XLF, the timing couldn’t be worse.

    Fear not, the Fed is already tapping the brakes.

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  • Inflation Not Done

    We might be done with inflation, but judging by the oil/gas markets, it’s not done with us. Both CL and RB have now broken out of channels dating back to early 2022 – with CL pushing above its 200-day moving average this morning.

    The Fed has its work cut out for it this week – and for the next several months.

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  • Powell: Inflation Not Over

    “Inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go,” Powell asserted in prepared remarks in advance of his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.

    Our charts certainly agree. As posted last week, there is little chance of inflation not bouncing back up unless oil and gas prices collapse from current levels.

    Futures are off moderately in anticipation of Powell’s truth-telling.

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  • No Surprise

    “I can’t believe stocks rallied so strongly into options expiration!” said no one.

    Between VIX’s plunge, the euro’s ramp, and the yield curve’s decimation, bears have had no chance – even as fundamentals argued otherwise.

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  • FOMC Day: Jun 14, 2023

    According to futures and talking heads, there’s a 94% chance that the Fed will pause its rate hikes this afternoon – though perhaps with a hawkish tilt. By our reckoning, equities have piled on at least 6% in the past few weeks in anticipation of this outcome.Is it justified?

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  • Jobless Claims Spike Higher

    Initial claims spiked to levels not seen since October 2021, another indication of a slowing economy.  Applications rose by 28,000 to 261,000, well above the consensus of 237K.

    So far, futures have ignored the print.

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  • Blowout NFP Complicates Fed’s Job

    Non-farm payrolls exploded higher in May, tallying 339K versus 190K consensus. On the other hand, unemployment rose from 3.4% to 3.7%.

    Futures initially slumped, as blowout job gains argue for further Fed tightening. But, VIX was hammered to lows of 15.12, a level not seen since Nov 2021, and the overnight ramp was salvaged, for now.

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