OPEC+ threw the party they said they would. Everyone was talking about it. But, nobody came.

CL and RB had already celebrated in the days leading up to the meeting and we were left with a non-event with CL stuck at a channel top and RB slamming into its 50-day MA.  Might there be an after party?

It matters because the 10Y is in a dicey position – bouncing off its TL, but without a clear engine for more upside.continued for members…

It’s interesting because stocks are in that same position. They got a very strong bounce that was almost completely unmotivated other than overly bearish positioning. But, now they’re bumping up against SMA20s and a channel midline.

Note that the little white channel above intersects with the white TL which indicates the original path that our analog forecast. These charts are pretty busy, so I often look at SPY for clarification.  And, it looks pretty clear.If we look at the previous upturns in the SMA10 (marked below) we can see that some were good signals of higher prices (b, c and d) but others were total headfakes.I suspect this will be one of those headfakes, with prices perhaps remaining elevated in advance of the next CPI report (Oct 13) but then facing another leg down.

At least that’s what VIX is telling us. I would change my mind and look for the rally to extend if VIX breaks down below its latest straw man TL.

Currencies are in a position to help, particularly if EURUSD rallies up to actually tag its SMA50. It got close the other day, but didn’t quite make it. It hasn’t ever missed it before since last January. The big picture in CL, RB and XLE:

GLTA