Another Fed meeting, another VIX-driven algo meltup.

But, something’s more than a little sketchy about this one – aside from the fact that the recession which Powell refused to acknowledge yesterday just got closer to being official.

It might be shallow, but the 0.9% drop in Q2 (first estimate, vs +0.5% consensus) makes for two quarters in a row – the commonly accepted definition of a recession.

continued for members…ES and SPX have both reached the top of their flag patterns…

…while ES also reached the top of the new (consolidated) falling purple channel… …and SPX finished backtesting the midline of the large yellow channel from 2008. So, at this point, the market is caught in a tug-of-war between VIX breaking down (bullish)…

…and USDJPY breaking down (bearish.)While EURUSD hasn’t plunged along withi USDJPY, it sure isn’t breaking out above its SMA10 or SMA20 – suggesting that our .9898 target is still a go.

This suggests that DXY will now run up and snag the .786 at 110.251.Assisting the bears: CL and RB. As we’ve discussed, they need to come down further in order to avoid a resurgence of YoY energy inflation in August. And, the channels they have traced out (especially RB) suggests lower prices are still ahead.

And, don’t look now, but the 10Y just broke down very convincingly, plunging below the neckline of a H&S Pattern that targets 2%.Stay tuned…