There’s a lot to unpack this morning, as several targets were tagged overnight.   USDJPY finally popped up to tag its 200-DMA……which enabled ES to come within 1.43 of our 3076.93 target – the 2.618 Fib extension of the drop between 2007-2009. I thought this was going to happen over the weekend, but better late then never.

It’s been a while since we had a nice pop and drop. Stay tuned.

continued for members…

This leaves ES at an obvious turning point……without causing SPX to make new highs… …as long as VIX cooperates.  Its SMA200 is still a concern, though the SMA20 continues to be a solid upside target. It would be the 5th try at the 30.70ish resistance, but this one would also test the white channel top. So, the resulting breakout or reversal will determine what happens next in equities.

Of course, SPX/ES reacting at these levels will also depend on USDJPY reversing at the SMA200 and not going on up to the top of the falling white channel at 109ish.  DXY is very oversold at the moment……with EURUSD pushing up to its .618 – which coincidentally places the C=A target at the 1.0339 lows.

CL and RB continue to be quite overextended, though CL could still be aiming for the gap close indicated below. Our “canaries” are still mixed to negative.

AAPL has yet to make new highs.Nor has COMP.The DJIA is the oddball, with the .618 below and the SMA200 above.

UPDATE:  9:48 AM

ES is about to turn negative but is testing a TL and its SMA5 200. Next steps are vitally important. Note that ES 3043.75ish would get SPX down to its 2.618 at 3047.34.UPDATE:  1:20 PM

So far, we’ve had a pop and drop, followed by another pop and drop, followed by another pop.

As discussed many times over the past week or two, there is very little standing in the way of VIX dropping to its SMA200 except the dashed white line at 25.95ish. USDJPY has reached the top of the rising white channel so quickly that it isn’t yet to the top of the falling white channel.  This would be the place for it to reverse unless it’s aiming for 109.20ish or higher.UPDATE:  10:00 PM

Once again we see ES close just above overhead resistance and melt up overnight from there. Nothing terribly surprising about how it happened…VIX is plumbing new lows…

…while CL continues its meltup… …and USDJPY waited until well after the close to back off.Looks like the Dow will take a stab at its SMA200 after all.Note that we’ll get durable goods and services ISM in the morning.

GLTA.