ES closed just above the 2.618 Fib extension at 3076.93 yesterday and proceeded to conduct the usual overnight meltup, aided by a nonsensical ADP jobs report. Consequently, it is closing in on the IH&S target of 3108 from a pattern completed way back on Apr 6.
At the same time, COMP – which has struggled to move beyond its .886 retracement, let alone make new all-time highs – just completed a golden cross, where the 50-DMA crosses above the 200-DMA.
Is there even such a thing as overhead resistance any more? We should find out today.
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ES’ IH&S target is 3108.
While SPX faces the intersection of its yellow TL and yellow channel midline at about that same level – maybe 3112. This would normally be vitally important resistance. But, so far, all other resistance has been ignored (except during backtests.)
As usual, the most important potential spoiler is VIX, which is hovering just a few percent above its SMA200. 
In bears’ favor – the white channel midline running through the chart at 25.94ish. It has stopped several plunges, and led to at least minor selloffs.
USDJPY, which shot through its SMA200 yesterday, is squatting at its channel top and shows no signs yet of retreating.
We’ve been watching AAPL, DJIA and COMP for signs of confirmation. DJIA is getting very close to its SMA200 at 26296. The Dow’s biggest component, of course, is AAPL. 
AAPL’s May 26 high is holding so far…
…just shy of its Jan 29 all-time highs. Note that it hasn’t even closed below its SMA10 since Apr 28. I’m not sure DJIA can reach its SMA200 without AAPL making new highs.
COMP is also threatening new highs – but so far has resisted the urge. It would be quite telling if it backed off making new highs on the very day after completing a golden cross.
The currency picture remains stretched, with the dollar weakening even further against the euro. The snapback should be severe when the ECB amps up its QE.
DXY is having a very hard time holding its ground – even with the yen’s help.
Durable goods and services ISM are coming up at 10:00.
Stay tuned…
UPDATE: 11:05 AM
ES just reached its IH&S target, and SPX is pushing up against its yellow TL. 
The hitches remain DJI – which is still 0.7% shy of its SMA200 – and VIX – which is still north of its SMA200 – meaning ES and SPX could well overshoot.
UPDATE: 3:37 PM
The good news for bears is that DJIA finally reached its SMA200. The bad news is that VIX might not have bottomed out – meaning this might be another one of those situations where resistance is completely ignored. All it would take, with VIX already off 6%, is for VIX to plunge to below 24.47.
ES should backtest its broken purple channel right about 3129.50.
Now is when we’ll want to watch AAPL and COMP very carefully. New highs to keep the Dow’s rally alive or will they back off?
If DJIA closes at its highs, above its SMA200, it increases the risk of no reversal. Naturally, this is happening as we go into the close.
The implication of SPX and ES reaching their overhead resistance as DJIA reaches its SMA200 is that we’ll get a sharp reversal here. Short everything. Of course, we’ve been here before, and know that it could just as easily be yet another head fake.