Today should shape up as a battle between holding a much-cherished round number (SPX 2900) and backtesting solid support (the January highs.)

The futures are off about 5, with yesterday’s downside target of 2878.50-2881.95 still looking good — if SPX will relinquish 2900.

Much will depend on the yen, which is strengthening in the midst of the EM turmoil…

…and the 10Y, which has been in a holding pattern for months.  It looks ripe for a breakdown, but that would almost certainly invert the curve and usher in more than a backtest.

continued for members…

VIX has managed to hold its channel bottom, leaving a clear path up to the SMA200.  If it breaks through, there are plenty of targets.

The EURUSD slipping slightly since completing its backtest…

…leaving DXY in limbo.

RB looks likely to tag its SMA200 in the next day or so, while CL is still hanging on to its recent bounce.

SPX held at its triangle bottom yesterday.  But, unless the futures bounce back in the next hour, it’s likely to at least backtest its SMA10 and possibly the January highs.

UPDATE: 3:55 PM

Another last minute VIX collapse, despite reports the Canada negotiations look dead in the water.  Odds are we’ll get the rest of the downside on Monday.