Today should shape up as a battle between holding a much-cherished round number (SPX 2900) and backtesting solid support (the January highs.)
The futures are off about 5, with yesterday’s downside target of 2878.50-2881.95 still looking good — if SPX will relinquish 2900.
Much will depend on the yen, which is strengthening in the midst of the EM turmoil…
…and the 10Y, which has been in a holding pattern for months. It looks ripe for a breakdown, but that would almost certainly invert the curve and usher in more than a backtest.
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