Apparently AAPL slashing guidance is inconsequential and Bill Gates, who is predicting 10 million deaths, is some sort of conspiracy theorist – because the market continues to ignore the coronavirus story. Perhaps somewhere down the line the investing world will come to realize what we’ve known for years: stocks have become increasingly easy to manipulate.

Lately, it has been VIX’s constant smackdowns below various measures of support and the perennial games played with currencies which have directed algos to buy every dip.  With oil and EURUSD having reached important downside targets, the formula might change somewhat. But, at what point will the game be obvious to all?

Futures are off about 15 points, not even 1/2% after a slew of dreadful headlines over the weekend.

continued for members…

I have to run out for an appointment, so I’ll do a chart dump and then come back around 10AM for commentary.

A reminder of the big picture for ES, which is back in the rising red channel for now at least.

Initial support is at the SMA10 – just below the channel bottom. The nonsensical upside case still points to the IH&S target at 3728.51.SPX is in a similar position, though it has been backtesting its rising red channel (albeit at higher highs.)

VIX is still playing games with its SMA200……with some very logical upside targets still pointing toward late February for a stock swoon.

Even though CL is off nicely this morning, it has yet to break back below its SMA10. As we’ve discussed many times, this is probably due to the bigger picture in which it is fighting to retain the rising white channel.

I still expect the white channel to eventually break down and the rising purple channel to take over until CL is ready to take a violent plunge much nearer to the 2023 downside target.

RB is likewise in a comfortable place, right in the middle of the Feb 2019 range. I’d be surprised to see it move much higher at this point, except for the fact that it might be needed in order to offset whatever deflationary impact the coronavirus is having.

We should see TNX break down again very soon, perhaps today, with our longstanding targets still in place.

Note that the 2s10s is breaking down below another TL of support. And, ZN is still hinting at a breakout to the purple channel top – currently around 133’020. The 2Y is flirting with a drop back through 1.40%, as the 2s10s continues to flatten.

GC is running out of time to make its move. When it tops Jan 8’s 1613.30, watch out. The IH&S points to 1710 and the .786 is also attractive at 1735.70. A DXY reversal here at its .886 would do wonders for GC. As discussed above, EURUSD is almost to its .786 target at 1.0813.  If it doesn’t stop there, we could see it drop as low as 1.0592 during this cycle.  The bigger risk to equities from a currency standpoint is the yen.  A breakdown through the red TL would do some damage. For now, though, stocks are paying the price for the USDJPY not breaking out.More later.

UPDATE: EOD

Couldn’t quite reach the SMA10s, even with the daily bump.  Oh, well…maybe a meteor will strike the earth tomorrow and SPX will drop another few points. Seriously, though, be very careful in chasing this breakout. It is built on a very weak algo-driven foundation which, given the coming moves in CL, DXY, USDJPY and TNX, cannot stand. When it cracks, it could be quite violent. VIX is back below the SMA200, of course.The only semi-surprise is that EURUSD dropped through the .786 and is testing a channel line, meaning DXY popped through its .886. Be very cautious chasing EURUSD, as this Fib breakdown leaves it at the bottom of a large, long-term channel which ought to provide a bounce to at least the SMA200 (1.11) and potentially higher. GLTA.