We have multiple targets being reached this morning, and several more in the works. We’ll start with ES, which just tagged our SMA50 target in a backtest of the falling white channel from which it broke out two weeks ago.

The one we’ve been waiting on for what feels like forever, though, is silver. SI broke out of the falling white channel twice before it managed to tag our 30.35 target in January. But, as we discussed at the time [see: Hi Ho Silver]:

With the SMA200 crawling along toward current prices, we can’t discount the potential for a long overdue backtest.

We’re finally getting that backtest. But, given DXY’s breakout, we have to wonder whether SI’s backtest will hold. We’ll update the prognosis for silver and gold and also sneak in a discussion of EURUSD, which officially reached our next downside target yesterday.

continued for members…This is an important test for stocks, as a drop back into the falling white channel would start the cascade of H&S Patterns we’ve been discussing.

On the currency front, EURUSD has dipped slightly below its SMA200 in order to backtest the white channel it broke out of in November. And, USDJPY is inching closer to a breakout. These have combined to send DXY out of its rising white channel again – this time to actually backtest the thin red TL it almost reached on Mar 9.

BTC is struggling, but has continued to hold its channel midline with 62,977 in sight.

Meanwhile, CL’s bounce is seemingly over, with the bearish 10/20 cross……now shared by RB as well.

As we been discussing, the drop in CL should accelerate the drop in 10Y yields.Now on to GC and SI.  We’ll start with SI, which is late to the party. Its falling white channel looked a lot like GC’s until Jan 28, when the Reddit crowd thought it would be great sport to squeeze the shorts in SLV.  And, it worked spectacularly…for one day.

Since then, it’s been a struggle between those who would see it break out and those who would see it break down.   At this point, I’d call it a draw.

The breakout certainly hasn’t felt like one lately, with lower highs and lower lows. The bearish 10/20 cross happened way back on Mar 3. But, the follow-through has been just as frustrating for anyone making bearish bets.

Combining the Fib picture with the rising purple channel illustrates a nice downside target at the red .618 at 18.79. But, that target will disappear pretty soon from a timing standpoint. Reaching it at the intersection of the channel bottom and .618 would mean a very sharp drop from here within the next week or so.

I’m certainly not saying it couldn’t happen. SI is back below its cloud… …and is sitting at very important RSI support which, if broken, could mean a substantial drop.But, what if the stalemate continues?  The one thing the charts above doesn’t really emphasize enough, IMO, is the red TL from 2001.  It provided support from 2015-2017…

…and provided overhead resistance in Sep 2019. SI shot up through it in July and has backtested it twice since then on Sep 24 and Nov 30. If it continues to provide support and the falling white channel never breaks down, we could be looking at a backtest at 23.20ish around Jun 9.This would mean a drop through the SMA, which would be a real bummer for the bulls.  But, the way things are going, a failure to bounce here at the SMA200 will send the weak hands packing anyway. Even with a bounce, they might leave out of sheer boredom.GC’s charting is simple by comparison. It is essential to the upside case that it remain above the rising purple channel bottom.It reached it on Mar 8 and two weeks later, on Mar 23, we finally got a bullish 10/20 cross. Since then, however, GC has made very little progress and had made lower lows four days in a row.  The cloud remains negative… …yet RSI is still somewhat ambiguous.

UPDATE:  3:50 PM

With 10 minutes to go, ES has completely reversed its earlier drop……thanks largely to VIX (who else?) Though it probably wasn’t lost on the algos that USDJPY is making a nice move today.  NKD has certainly noticed and has postponed its bearish 10/20 cross for yet another day.