ES is reaching our next downside target right on schedule.Note that if ES hadn’t spurted past its February highs in late August, falling to our 100-DMA target would have involved a fairly shallow drop of 5.5% and would have preserved the rising white channel.

Instead, we have a 10.8% loss so far and face much greater technical damage if support isn’t retaken – all for the sake of completely unjustified higher all-time highs.

Fear and greed. It’s the same old story when it comes to markets, even in the age of algorithms and central bank interference.

continued for members…

Bulls face an important test here, as ES’ rising white channel can still be salvaged with a sharp reversal at 3195 or so.

But, as we’ve pointed out before, it’s too late for SPX’s rising white channel. Instead, it has the yellow channel line and red TL to support it between here and its SMA200 and 2.618 extension. If it can hold the dashed yellow line, it will have held the midline of the large yellow channel from 2009, the bottom of which crosses the 2.24 extension at 2703 in March 2021.There are a number of other factors rummaging around important support/resistance.

DXY and USDJPY have bumped up against their backtest targets.

While EURUSD is in the middle of nowhere.GC and SI have both reached their next levels of support. And, though they likely have further to fall, CL and RB are taking a stand at the moment. Despite a nice bounce back on top of its important SMA200 at 29.28, VIX’s bearish 10/20 cross still stands.  Last, TNX again looks like it might break down. And, we’ll want to keep a close eye on the Dow and its SMA200 at 26282.I have back to back meetings most of the day, but will be back in time to post before the close.

GLTA.

UPDATE:  3:50 PM

Oh so close, but no tags yet. Does this mean another dip tomorrow?  Probably, but no guarantee. The most compelling argument is DJIA, whose low was still 255 points away from its SMA200 at 26282.