A Turning Point

Per our analog, today is the next significant turning point – important in terms of confirming the direction and distance of the market’s next move. It has done an excellent job of forecasting the reversals, rallies and drops since we first posted it on May 13 [see: Analog Watch.] The first time I came across … continue reading →

Analog in Play

Futures are all over the map this morning, with the overnight losses largely erased at one point. The key, though, is that SPX bounced back above a key Fib level after tagging its 20% target last week. Although it’s still early stages, our analog is in play. continued for members… … continue reading →

A Failure to Communicate

Remember that scene in Cool Hand Luke where Paul Newman mouths off to the Captain after a failed escape attempt? He doesn’t initially appreciate the gravity of his situation. He is soon reminded. That’s what yesterday’s post-Fed presser felt like. Powell was trying to convey the sense that the Fed means business. It is going … continue reading →

The Market is (Still) Broken

Futures came roaring back into the falling white channel yesterday, revealing what many know but few say out loud: the market is broken. When expectations of a 1% quarterly rise in GDP yield, instead, a 1.4% decline, stocks should decline. Plain and simple. The old “bad news is good news” argument doesn’t work any more … continue reading →

Update on Currencies: Apr 28, 2022

The dollar index continues its tear, surpassing both its 2017 and 2020 highs this morning. This is consistent with our forecast [see: Apr 11 Update on Currencies] that the Fed would need help from a rising dollar to attack inflation without having to resort to sky-high interest rates that would further accelerate the growth of … continue reading →

Stocks’ Broken Record

Yesterday marked the fourth time in the past two months that SPX tested the same important Fib level.  The failure to maintain a trend is becoming…well, a trend. Will SPX keep playing the same old song or is it finally time for this trend to be broken? continued for members… … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Apr 26, 2022

ES closed back in its falling white channel following its midday recovery, keeping our target price and date unchanged. Note: The current forecast page has been updated with targets for SPX, ES, COMP, VIX, USDJPY, EURUSD, DXY, GC, SI, BTC, CL, RB and the 10Y. continued for members… … continue reading →