Bitcoin’s Meltdown

BTC reached our next downside target at 28,600 last night, then dropped as low as 25,401 before bouncing back to current levels. It’s not unusual for BTC to overshoot important support. And, this .618 Fib level is theoretically important support. But, it’s also important to remember that a bounce is sometimes just a backtest of … continue reading →

A Swing and a Miss

ES spent 11 hours hanging around our next downside target yesterday.  While the session had many characteristics of capitulation, the fact that SPX didn’t quite reach significant support (3956) suggests that the overnight ramp is a head fake.continued for members… … continue reading →

Nobody Saw it Coming

The financial press usually starts to take things seriously about this point in a correction. The permabulls aren’t calling bottoms any more, while the bears are licking their chops. It never fails, someone on TV says something like “no one saw this coming.” It’s silly, of course. What they mean is that they didn’t see … continue reading →

FOMC Day: May 4, 2022

Today’s FOMC meeting is one of the most anticipated and consequential in years. It’s difficult to overstate its importance in terms of economic impact and, perhaps more importantly, Fed credibility. Yes, we care about whether the Fed hikes 50 or 75 basis points – though either is unlikely to put a dent in inflation. The … continue reading →

Undone?

ES tagged our next downside target this morning……tagging the 4319 target we posted back on Jan 3 [see: De Facto Shutdown.] The only question now is whether stocks will get the big bounce they usually do after a 10% correction or whether they’ve come undone. In other words, I have this 1969 Guess Who classic … continue reading →

The De Facto Shutdown

Companies and individuals alike are cutting back their activities as the omicron outbreak continues to accelerate. Many companies, short of employees, supplies, or customers are raising pay, trimming back hours or cutting product offerings in order to stay afloat. Individuals are cutting back their activities in order to stay healthy. Though not official, the shutdown … continue reading →

DXY: Finally Breaking Out?

Stocks tumbled yesterday on inflation numbers that call into question the pace of the Fed’s taper and rate increases. Then they rallied overnight on an 11.4% collapse in VIX. The most significant chart on my screens at the moment, though, is the US dollar. DXY has had great difficulty breaking out of a tightly controlled … continue reading →