pebblewriter

Tag: fibonacci

  • Fed Whispering

    The FOMC’s meeting gets underway today. Like most, this one seems very consequential. The Street is divided on whether or not the Fed has done enough to combat inflation as well as the necessity of a recession.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jan 20, 2023

    Futures are marginally higher ahead of 2023’s first options expiration.

    Note that the 2022 Review and 2023 Forecasts are both completed.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Dec 27, 2022

    S&P futures are quiet this morning, back to even after being up about 30 points overnight.continued for members… (more…)

  • Another Good News is Bad News Story

    Unemployment claims came in lower than expected, further dashing the hopes of those praying for a Fed pivot.  Meanwhile, the OPEX levitation continues.

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  • VIX: Not a Coincidence

    When COMP bounced at 10,572.33 on Friday, a mere 7.19 above its June 16 lows, it might have struck some as a coincidence.  It wasn’t.

    It was a well-coordinated effort to ensure that new lows were avoided – at least for the time being.The usual culprit: VIX.  For the 6th session in a row and the 12th time since Jan 24, 2022, VIX tested and retreated from the same trend line – an occurrence the algos have been well trained to respond to with a bounce.  The June 13 test went further, producing a huge bounce because it also broke below two significant trend lines of support as well as producing a bearish (bullish for stocks) alignment in moving averages.

    Yesterday’s huge plunge in VIX similarly wreaked havoc with moving averages – postponing (at least) an imminent 50/200 cross.  Will this short squeeze rally follow the same playbook?

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  • Losses Accelerate

    Futures are off sharply this morning as important support for various instruments/indices/currencies begins to break down.

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  • Fed Meeting on Deck

    It’s unusual for stocks to sell off in the lead up to an FOMC meeting. Its also unusual for a bearish pattern such as a Head and Shoulders pattern to complete during those days.  Yet, here we are.

    As has been the case since late August, the only thing preventing a severe downturn (aside from the hope that the Fed will suddenly change course and be less hawkish) is VIX – which keeps getting smacked down every time it reaches 27-28.

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  • Another Head and Shoulders Pattern

    Another ugly open for markets as ES, down about 1.25%, completed its H&S Pattern we’ve been watching take shape.

    More grist for the bearish mill…as though we needed any more.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 24, 2022

    Futures are flat after enjoying a modest overnight ramp.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 22, 2022

    Futures are off sharply this morning, reflecting the lack of support behind the runup to the last two options expirations.

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