Rumors are flying fast and furious.  Will a new nuclear deal be signed with Iran, thus adding 200K barrels per day back into global supply? Will Russia be frozen out? Futures popped 40 points on the speculation, though the IH&S has still not played out.

As we said last week, nothing would be as effective at punishing Russia and helping to solve the inflation problem as crashing the oil market. Stay tuned.

continued for members…

At this rate, ES will keep inching upward/outward until it reaches 4434.50 at the intersection of the neckline and the channel top at 8am next Monday. Let’s hope not, but triangles are extremely common around Fed decisions. If oil does retreat, stocks should too. Reversing at the .786 would be a good start… …as would RB reversing at its 1.618. USDJPY is still supporting stocks… …though EURUSD is still settling toward our 1.0999 target… …leaving DXY essentially flat.Gold and silver are bid, but only slightly.

And, BTC continues to linger at a critical decision point – the neckline of the completed H&S pattern.  We can add the SMA100 and a RSI trendline tag to the list of overhead resistance points. Powell said yesterday that we might only get a 25 bps hike on Mar 16. The 10Y didn’t react much. Consider the gap closed, but otherwise not much to go on. Note that there still isn’t any clarity as to which rising channel the 10Y will follow: the red or the blue. But, for now, my expectation is that we’ll revert to the intersection at roughly 1.54%.Note that the 2s10s has reached the last level of support before reaching inversion.more later…

UPDATE:  11:49 AM

Now it’s a proper triangle.