Futures are all over the map this morning, with the overnight losses largely erased at one point.

The key, though, is that SPX bounced back above a key Fib level after tagging its 20% target last week. Although it’s still early stages, our analog is in play.

continued for members…

I still need to adapt the ES chart to the analog, so don’t pay too much attention to the ES targets. They still reflect the downside potential if the expected 9%+ bounce doesn’t materialize.If you’re new to the website, go back and look at Friday’s charts and explanation.

The key to a sizeable bounce will be VIX’s breakdown to or below its SMA200 and a few bearish crosses such as the SMA10 diving below the SMA20.This was made possible by VIX never breaking above the red dashed fan line from the March 2020 highs.Currencies are likely to facilitate the bounce by DXY doing some backtesting – mostly on the back of EURUSD backtesting its former lows at 1.0635. Look for a backtest to 102.979  or even 101.797.

Silver should get a nice backtest of its flag pattern, probably at 21.513……while GC has already backtested its neckline and will likely stall here. If not, the SMA200 is the backtest target. Bitcoin is having another rough day, though on the back of a bounce at the .618 at 28,737.  Perhaps a backtest?Oil and gas have been consolidating so long, it’s significant that RB broke to new highs on Friday. Those long, weekend drives are looking less and less appealing.If this holds, the upside could be all the way up at the 2.24 or 2.618 Fib.  Even though it’s up nearly 1% this morning……the 10Y is slightly lower.Note that SPX hasn’t left any gaps to fill yet, so this morning’s weakness should be more focused on backtesting the 3.618. Though, it is in no way mandatory.

Stay tuned.