Because Appearances Matter

It’s not too surprising that there’s been a firm floor under oil and gas prices, given the upcoming Aramco IPO.  But, isn’t it funny how CL has popped above its SMA200 every single day this week, even in the wake of dismal inventory data?

Just like it’s funny that ES, which pretty obviously should have given up all its overnight trade data related gains should have given up at least most of them after the Reuters laid a little trade truthiness on us.If it had done so before the close, ES would have put in another bearish-looking daily candle.  But, it waited until later in the evening, which allowed ES to leave a bullish candle in its wake.  Funny how that happened.VIX is well-known for timely “breakdowns” that last anywhere from a few seconds to a few minutes which remind the algos of the glory which awaits them if they’ll simply buy-buy-buy.  Today, like yesterday, it hit at exactly 9:00 AM – about the time futures were trying to decide whether the market should open in the green or the red.  Watch for it to happen again if stocks should have the nerve to slip lower.But, the champion of bullish appearances has to be the USDJPY, which has reminded us of its incredible upside potential over the past month, repeatedly pushing above its SMA200 and pumping the Nikkei 12% in the process.Combined with timely soundbites from the White House on the incredible successes being achieved on the trade front, the market can’t be blamed for ramping higher most every day.  But, what happens if the narrative changes?  What happens if one or more of the factors fueling the machine runs dry?

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