Today we celebrate America’s veterans. Please take the opportunity to thank a veteran in your life for their service and their sacrifice.

There are many organizations dedicated to helping veterans which rely on charitable donations for the good work they do.  One of my favorites, the Michael J Novosel Foundation, was established to assist National Guard and reservists with the challenges of transitioning from service in Iraq and Afghanistan to civilian lives.  Their info can be found here.  Please give generously if you are able.

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Futures are off just enough to test a trend line from the Nov 6 lows.  This is the 6th day in a row that ES has tagged its 2.618 Fib extension at 2076.93.This follows a brief breakdown of important VIX support at the close on Friday which was, in retrospect, a head fake……and another failure (the 5th) by CL to retake its SMA200.continued for members…

The rest of the charts show a continuation of conflicting signals.  The most important development last week is that ES’ potential H&S pattern was thwarted.  The potential right shoulder finally topped the height of the head, so that pattern is technically kaput.  Score one for the bulls.On the other hand, VIX’s breakdown below the long-term TL support has reversed itself as of this morning and, as the chart above shows, VIX has broken out above the TL of resistance from Oct 23.  Score one for the bears.

Also in bears’ favor, CL’s failure to hold, let alone break out above, its SMA200.  Of course, it hasn’t yet broken down either and, as we discussed last week, the Aramco deal might prevent if from breaking down any time soon.

While USDJPY failed to hold its SMA200, it has backtested the channel it broke out of and is only pennies away from breaking above the SMA200 when necessary.

And, TNX remains technically broken out — though I have my suspicions about its ability to remain so.Bottom line, SPX has TL support at 3077.  It will require some of these other factors to break down or VIX to gain upside momentum, in order for our downside targets to play out.At some point, SPX should at least backtest 3047.34.  But, stocks continue to establish and then break out of small, falling channels at whim.

With SA protecting CL and central banks protecting USDJPY and VIX, it appears we would need a sizable shock to get the downside going before the end of the year.  Selloffs are particularly unusual on low-volume holidays.

There is considerable important economic data coming over the next few days which might fit the bill.  Stay tuned.

As I mentioned last week, I’m going to take the day off today.

GLTA.