CPI soared to a new 40-year high: 8.6% YoY and 1.0% MoM. Core also exceeded consensus, coming in at 6.0%.
Futures are not amused, as this takes anything less than a 50 bps rate hike next week off the table. A 75 bps hike is suddenly a real possibility.
Needless to say, our analog remains very much on track.
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In a CNBC interview this morning, Fed President Jim Bullard said “Our credibility is on the line here…” Anyone paying any attention to the Fed knows that that ship sailed a long time ago.
Futures have been all over the map, down as many as 55 points before VIX was hammered following a false news report regarding the situation in Ukraine.
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January headline CPI reached 7.5%, a new 40-yr high, sending the 10Y up over 2% for the first time since August 2019 when CPI registered 1.75%. As has been the trend since November, oil/gas no longer leads the way.
Inflation has become widespread, higher than the Fed’s so-called 2% target in every category except, ironically, medical services. Energy was the only category showing a negative MoM change.
Futures are off over 40 points so far. If not for the ramp job of the last few days, ES would be back below its 200-DMA. It’s the markets version of raising prices so you can advertise a huge sale.
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Futures are up slightly as we approach the open – an extension of the bounce off recent lows.
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A little over a week ago, COMP made a hard bounce off its 200-DMA, gapping much higher the following day. Yesterday, it plunged below its 200-DMA and closed there – not a good sign for the bulls.
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We’ve been writing about the current inflation problem for years. In December 2019 for instance [see: Inflation Games], we noted that CPI was about to top 2% again and that this realization had prompted the Fed’s shift from a 2% target to a range in excess of 2% to make up for past shortfalls.
Without harping on geopolitical considerations [see: Coincidences and Consequences] all over again, it’s obvious that the Fed’s effort to keep interest rates low is dependent on keeping inflation under control which, in turn, is dependent on keeping the annual change in gas prices under control.
That is why the Fed is considering formal changes to the way it evaluates inflation as (not) detailed in the official gobbledygook offered last month. It also explains the various comments made by Fed officials – first suggesting that inflation should target a range rather than a specific level (i.e. 2.0%) and more recently suggesting that inflation should be allowed to “run hot.”
CPI crept up to 2.49% over the next several months. But, the correction in oil/gas we had forecast at the time accelerated into a rout thanks to the COVID crash in March-April 2020. Oil and gas prices plunged below zero, and inflation was officially too low again.
By September 2020 [see: Inflation Tops Estimates] however, it became apparent that the subsequent recovery in oil/gas prices would again contribute to CPI rising back over 2% by early 2021. We reiterated this forecast in December [see: Don’t Ignore Inflation], writing:
…the Fed, for all its heroics in “saving” the economy from the pandemic this year, has backed itself into a corner. What the markets don’t seem to appreciate is the implication of the coming spike in YoY price changes in oil and gas. In my estimation, the 3-4% CPI it implies (so far) represents a very significant risk to markets…”
By March 2021 CPI had reached 2.62% and, according to our research, was headed much higher unless corrective action was taken. In The Big Picture: Oil and Gas we reiterated the dilemma facing the Fed if oil/gas prices continued to rise.
Given that interest rates are close to zero and must remain near zero out of necessity, and the dramatic increase in oil and gas prices since last April’s crash should result in at least a 40%+ YoY increase, and CPI is very positively correlated with YoY increases in gas prices, and interest rates are very positively correlated with CPI, will politicians and central bankers allow oil/gas prices to remain at these levels? I don’t think so.
While our inflation forecast was spot on, this is where our oil/gas forecast began to miss the mark. In the mid-60s at the time, WTI continued to rise until reaching the mid-80s in late October. The 10Y, however, remained in the 1.2-1.7% range. Bottom line, we had greatly underestimated the Fed’s ability to suppress interest rates during a very sharp rise in inflation.
It is a feat rarely achieved except in situations such as 2007-2008 when the equity market crash caused investors to flee stocks for bonds. With multiple rounds of QE at its disposal, the Fed was able to capitalize on the declines the financial crisis had wrought. Like the BoJ and ECB, the Fed had broken the bond market.
With no price discovery to worry about, the Fed was seemingly free to pump equity markets higher without consequence. Until now.
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You know things are getting real when ES closes below its 50-day moving average. It has bounced at that support 9 times in the past year. When the 50-DMA fails, the 100-DMA has provided support 6 times since Jun 2020.
With ES closing below its 50-DMA yesterday and likely to reach its 100-DMA today, is it finally time for a test of the 200-DMA?
The stakes are high, as VIX pulled back after reaching important resistance at our 32.50 target yesterday.
Meanwhile…inflation, the Fed policy choice that pundits are mistakenly calling a “mistake.” Sure, it delivered a body blow to the have-nots, but It provided record high stock and real estate prices to the rest of us.
November CPI is due out next Friday, and we are still looking for it to mark a turning point in this cycle. WTI is off 23% from its highs – technically a bear market. And agricultural commodities have backed off their breakout and are eyeing a potential breakdown.
Our assumption remains that CPI will be back below 3% by the time the taper is complete. Sorry savers, but there probably won’t be any need to raise rates any time soon, if ever.
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With goldbugs calling for gold to double, we got bearish again when it reached our upside target at 1870.60 on November 10 [see: CPI: Out of Control.]
Gold is getting a big boost from the inflation data, and has now reached the purple neckline at 1870.60. I would revert to short with tight stops right here.
We didn’t give silver the hook until Nov 12 [see: Gold – Still a Good Inflation Hedge?] when it tagged our 200-DMA target. Neither metal has fallen much since then. But, the fact that they haven’t broken out in the midst of an inflation scare speaks volumes.
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CPI soared to 6.24% YoY in October, well above the 5.9% expected and the highest since Nov 1990. The MoM print of 0.9% and the Core CPI print of 4.2% also came in hotter than expected and set multiyear records. Put simply, the Fed has lost control.
As we’ve discussed, inflation continues to become more broad-based than the oil/gas-driven effect initially seen earlier this year.
The chart below shows the divergence from May-September and illustrates the importance of oil/gas prices to future inflation prints. If gas prices were to level off at today’s levels, the direct effect on CPI would cease in November. However, even if the base effect were to roll off, the other categories are now equally problematic. 
Futures are off 20 points on the news, with several key factors indicating more to come.
Today marks the point at which the Fed officially stops cheering on the reflation trade.
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OPEC+ is expected to increase production by another 400,000 bpd in today’s meeting, another dagger in the heart of the stubborn oil/gas rally. Of course, at this juncture, CL can backtest its SMA200 without even making a lower low. So, perhaps a pullback will finally be allowed.
Given how important rising oil/gas prices have been to equity performance, stocks might just have a hard time digesting a significant pullback.
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