pebblewriter

Tag: cpi

  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 11, 2023

    Futures just tagged our 50-day SMA target, but need to drop another 20 points if SPX is to reach its.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 8, 2023

    Futures are down sharply as yesterday’s currency moves and VIX smackdown are being unwound by Moody’s banking downgrades.  At least banks aren’t waking up to a 40% windfall profit tax such as Italy just imposed.

    This timely bit of truthiness certainly has the potential to get ES to our SMA50 target in the lead up to Thursday’s CPI print. As for XLF, the timing couldn’t be worse.

    Fear not, the Fed is already tapping the brakes.

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  • CPI Coming Up

    Futures are up moderately, primarily on the DXY stall and the usual overnight VIX smackdown. But, most attention will be focused on Thursday’s CPI print.

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  • Minute by Minute

    The Fed will release its June minutes this afternoon, potentially shedding some light on why they paused their rate hikes. But, thanks to plenty of Fedspeak – including Jay Powell’s testimony – we already know that they are as confused and conflicted as everyone else. As always, they are more concerned about markets than anything else.

    Futures are off about 0.50% as we approach the open.

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  • Bank Concerns Are Back

    After a brief respite, bank stocks are again under pressure with deposit flight and CDS both pointing to escalating concerns.

    Neither the April CPI nor PPI prints support the notion that the Fed will lower rates any time soon – keeping the pressure on banks and an economy that depends on easy access to cheap credit.

    Futures backed off the key 4166 threshold again yesterday, only to bounce back and test it again overnight.

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  • PPI Echoes CPI

    After closing below its 10-day SMA for the first time in a month, ES is backtesting it……on the back of PPI data that essentially echoed yesterday’s CPI print. Headline PPI crashed to 2.7% YoY and -0.5% MoM. Though stripping out food and energy, core PPI fell only 0.1% MoM and increased 3.4% YoY.

    As we discussed yesterday, 80% of the MoM decline was due to the sharp drop in gasoline prices.

    Also out this morning, credit portfolio managers agree with the Fed’s assessment that the economy is headed for recession. It’s a troubling backdrop as we enter earnings season in the midst of a credit crunch.

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  • FOMC Day: Dec 14, 2022

    They’re all important, but this one carries extra significance due to the potential for a slowdown in rate hikes, or at least the commentary regarding one.

    Futures almost backtested the 200-day moving average overnight, but are now essentially flat.

    After all the excitement yesterday, our targets remain the same across the board. If anything, the hoopla complicated the Fed’s task by aptly demonstrating the persistent froth in the markets.

    I believe this practically guarantees that Powell will pull another Jackson Hole and scold investors for their irrational exuberance. Whether it will be enough to counteract the OPEX effect is anyone’s guess.

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  • VIX Sliding Away

    Seemingly on a rail, VIX’s bump took it only to the top of the falling red channel in place for over a month.

    A failure to break out means ES can top its 361.8 Fib extension and reach its IH&S targets. continued for members… (more…)

  • The Day After

    It was more of a red ripple than a red wave. So far, it appears that Republicans will hold a five seat majority in the House and might actually lose ground in the Senate.  Futures are moderately lower.continued for members… (more…)

  • Waiting on CPI

    More of the same…perhaps until CPI comes out on Thursday.

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