Things are playing out as expected, with ES coming within 5 points of our next downside target (the SMA200) overnight.
The chart receiving the most attention is the 10Y, which broke below 22.94 and is on its way to our 21.72 target.
The one which should be receiving the most attention is SPX, which closed below its H&S Pattern neckline — adding credence to our lower targets.
Though it seems like more, 2776 will represent a 5.5% drop since our short signal at 2940 on Apr 30 [see: FOMC – Endgame.] Things will get really exciting if/when SPX fails to bounce.
continued for members…
The big question is how fast stocks will fall, and where they’ll bounce. Eventually, we’ll run into the same problem of the 2.24. ES’ is at 2728… 
…and SPX’s is at 2703. So, ES will reach its well before SPX. Remember on Mar 8 ES bounce at its while SPX was still 19 points away.
COMP is closing in on its SMA100/200, and could surprise a lot of folks with a drop through them to its .618.
The yield curve model is still bearish. 
ZN has pushed through 125’205 and appears likely to tag 127’285. The big question is “when?” If it breaks out of the white channel, it could be as soon as this week. If the white channel top holds, then we’re looking at mid-August — meaning a dip this week and another, potentially deeper drop then. I’ll be watching this closely.
A reminder…there are much higher targets to consider.
AAPL continues sliding. 
VIX is back above its SMA200. 
USDJPY hasn’t done much yet, but that could change any minute. 107.57 is looking better all the time…
…while DXY and EURUSD continue to go sideways. 
RB and CL are making lots of noise. But, RB has yet to break below its channel backtest. 
And, CL hasn’t yet made new lows. Again, this could change and could easily provide the impetus for SPX to reach 2722 and 2703. 
I have meetings this morning — will be back after the open.
UPDATE: 11:30 AM
SPX, ES and COMP have all tagged their SMA200s.
Very interesting that it took little help from VIX, CL or USDJPY. All they had to do was stay out out of the way and not rescue stocks.
UPDATE: 3:25 PM
An analog I’ve been following for the past month or so puts an interim bottom at Jun 3, next Monday. I don’t know if it’ll play out or not, but it certainly fits with the falling purple channels and the notion of a big H&S Pattern. It would also be the .382 retrace of the rise from Dec 26. A reminder…the white .500 aligns with the smaller H&S target at 2650 and the larger falling purple channel’s .236 line.
