Futures are off slightly this morning as ES has backtested the channel it meant to break out of on OPEX Friday.  Today marks the beginning of the last seven sessions until the end of Q2 – traditionally a period of flat or rising prices.

Can the seasonal trend offset the growing list of bearish fundamental and technical factors?

continued for members…

ES is right at the top of the falling white channel and 70 points above its SMA200.  It got close on Friday, but couldn’t quite reach it.  A more important development in the short run is the fact that, in the absence of a huge spike higher, ES’ SMA10 will cross below its SMA20 today. SPX is still a good 80 points off its SMA200. VIX still has plenty of room to backtest its SMA200 and yellow TL.  Remember, we already saw a bullish 10/20 cross (bearish for stocks) a few sessions ago. It adds fuel to the fire that the presumed trend is negative for stocks.Remember, DJIA has now failed to retake its SMA200 for seven sessions in a row. And, though CL and RB are still levitating near our targets… …USDJPY is still sagging badly… …and made more bearish by the fact that NKD will see its own bearish 10/20 cross today.The bond market is still in a holding pattern, with the 10Y still hanging on but due for a plunge. With the 2Y stable, slumping 10Y yields are pressuring the 2s10s. A breakdown seems likely.Apple’s WWDC begins today. Though the stock recently made new highs, I’m not impressed by its chart. I think we’re looking at lower prices ahead. Likewise, COMP is looking spent after expending a lot of energy to almost tag its 2.24. Though EURUSD is getting a bounce (and DXY sagging) today, I expect it to resume its slump in order to prevent a damaging golden cross. And, GC is still inching toward our .886 target at 1823.60.UPDATE:  3:42 PM

Everything is going pretty much to plan. SPX hasn’t broken out, or even above its SMA10. While ES spike just high enough to perhaps postpone its SMA10/20 cross.  Most of the action is being driven by CL, still closing in on 41.05, and VIX, off over 8% today.   Note that AAPL has tagged its 1.272 – a potential turning point.