Futures have given up all their Tesla gains and are pointing to a slightly lower open for the S&P this morning.Apparently, a threatened breakdown in VIX just isn’t as effective as it used to be.

What we have here is a failure to capitulate (apologies to Cool Hand Luke for the cheap rip-off of a great movie.)

continued for members…

Our stance across the board remains the same.  The bigger picture for SPX and ES: VIX can threaten all it wants, but a failure to drop through 23.54 is all the algos care about.Currencies are pretty much where they were yesterday – just haven’t capitulated yet.

Ditto for oil and gas…

And, for bonds…I am going to take some time in the next week or so and work on the website. Besides getting caught up on several to do list items, I’d like your ideas on things that would be interesting or helpful in some way. Please send me your thoughts any time.

More later.

UPDATE:  2:19 PM

This is a little more like it, though ES is getting hung up on its SMA10 at the moment.  SPX has TL support, and its SMA10 will get up to this level tomorrow – an “after the fact” tag.  In other words, this is a likely spot for a bounce. If one doesn’t occur, we’d have a shot at the white channel midline and yellow channel midline.

Note that VIX was rebuffed at its SMA200, with plenty of nice targets above that if it can push through. Watch the TL support for CL and RB. I had an inquiry from member J.K. regarding silver, which has been on a tear of late. First, a disclosure. While I appreciate the potential silver represents, I don’t really care for it as an investment because: (1) I believe it is even more heavily manipulated than gold; (2) it is the flavor of the month of the largely inexperienced Robin Hood crowd; and, (3) I lost a bundle trying to short it while following Elliott Wave research in early 2011.

But, I’ll take a shot at charting it.

First, I can find no channels, long term or short term, that seem to work. This is usually reason enough to forgo even trying to chart something. Second, from a fundamental standpoint, it makes just as much sense as gold – which recently busted through two upside targets (the .886 at 1823 and a channel midline at 1866.)  Like gold, it also represents a threat to fiat and, as such, could get hammered at any time just because central bankers don’t want anything else to get too popular.

Third, it has poor correlations with things it should correlate with – mostly because those things are so heavily manipulated – such as the 10Y.

…or oil, a big driver of inflation.The one thing it should be negatively correlated with – the dollar index – has occasionally moved in tandem with it.I think the dollar is close to bottoming. If so, this could be problematic for silver which would theoretically be close to topping.

With all those provisos out of the way (there are more) I note that it is coming up on potential Fib and channel resistance at 26.22-26.92. But, it is already overbought to the same extent it was in July 2016 and Sept 2019. Doesn’t mean it can’t get more overbought (especially with the Robin Hood crowd after it) but it’s worth noting. Along the same vein, it is one of those things which might come under selling pressure in a general selloff (such as I believe might be underway) by Robin Hood traders who have never experienced a selloff.

Taking all those arguments into account, I find myself feeling more bearish than bullish, at least in the short run. Having said that, if gold is “allowed” to break out past its all-time highs (1923.70) when there’s plenty of upside, bolstered by the enormous increase in money supply with which the Fed has blessed the markets.

I’d want to keep a close eye on DXY, which made a marginally lower low today before bouncing back above its March 9 lows.