The market isn’t even open yet, and already the administration is starting with the algo-inspiring messaging. A China deal is imminent! Actually, quite likely. Well, there’s a decent chance… Playing this outcome is no better than a roll of the dice — which is why the VIX gamesmanship has already begun. Note that ES’ two … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: November 2018
Unless he publicly walks back yesterday’s widely misquoted comments, Powell has officially joined the club of Fed chairmen with unquestioned allegiance to a rising market. The actual quote: “Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the … continue reading →
My favorite Trumpism of the week: “I’m doing deals and I’m not being accommodated by the Fed,” Trump told the Post. “They’re making a mistake because I have a gut and my gut tells me more sometimes than anybody else’s brain can ever tell me.” If Trump could just shut his big yapper for a … continue reading →
Continuing yesterday’s theme of Mixed Messages, futures have been all over the map since yesterday’s close – sinking as low as 2626 on more tariff troubles and soaring up to 2684.50 (and, coincidentally, the SMA10) on tariff hopes. Virtually all of our targets remain the same, though clearly we face substantial headline risk for the … continue reading →
A 30-pt bounce in futures over a long holiday weekend is nothing new. But, when it happens in the midst of longer-term bearish patterns which have yet to fully play out, it delivers very mixed messages. Our yield curve model continues to point to lower stock prices, so we’ll regard this ramp as a likely … continue reading →
In our Nov 9 Update on Oil and Gas, I reiterated the importance of the support that had just been reached. CL just reached our next downside target of 59.47 and RB has reached our target range of 1.58-1.62. This is important support for both which, if broken, would portend much more downside.…the charts show … continue reading →
It’s gratifying when a model plays out nicely as this one has. But, just a reminder, it’s not over just yet. There are plenty of ways it could go sideways. CL and RB could continue falling after reaching our next downside targets, which could drive ES/SPX lower than our H&S targets. From last week’s Trump: … continue reading →
Our forecast remains unchanged from last week — a very sharp drop this week, followed by a deeper drop the next. Needless to say, this goes against the grain. Holidays are usually all about senseless melt-ups. So, I’ll look especially foolish or brilliant in the next week or so. As always, use appropriate stops.We should … continue reading →
Interesting pause here at support. If a model I’m watching plays out, next week could be ugly. On the other hand…think of all the times we’ve seen a meltup during a low-volume holiday week. There are a few tells, as long as they’re not head-fakes. We’ll start with USDJPY, which has done absolutely nothing to … continue reading →
One glance at the Philadelphia Fed Index this morning, and you could find yourself wondering whether Powell was really talking about the “rest” of the world.Yet, the Fed supposedly remains hawkish. Never mind that the 10Y and the yield curve are telling us the rate hikes are drawing to a close. continued for members… … continue reading →