SPX came within 7 points of our downside target yesterday, getting a midday bounce that couldn’t quite reach the 200-DMA. Futures popped as high as 73 points off the intraday lows, but have since given back about 12 of those points and are perched barely above ES SMA200 at a 28-pt gain in the after-hours.
If those gains hold, it still won’t be enough to ramp SPX back above its 200-DMA. What’s more, USDJPY, RB and CL have further to fall, VIX has additional upside potential and DJIA and COMP remain below their 200-DMAs. Despite the after-hours euphoria, stocks aren’t out of the woods just yet.
One economic item which doesn’t usually attract that much attention, but might today: Treasury Budget. The trend hasn’t been very positive lately as witnessed by the widening gap between outlays and receipts.
Export and import prices are also due out (8:30am.) These will get extra scrutiny to see what impact tariffs have had on prices so far. And, Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10am) frequently impacts markets.
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