SPX came within 7 points of our downside target yesterday, getting a midday bounce that couldn’t quite reach the 200-DMA.  Futures popped as high as 73 points off the intraday lows, but have since given back about 12 of those points and are perched barely above ES SMA200 at a 28-pt gain in the after-hours.If those gains hold, it still won’t be enough to ramp SPX back above its 200-DMA.  What’s more, USDJPY, RB and CL have further to fall, VIX has additional upside potential and DJIA and COMP remain below their 200-DMAs.  Despite the after-hours euphoria, stocks aren’t out of the woods just yet.

One economic item which doesn’t usually attract that much attention, but might today: Treasury Budget.  The trend hasn’t been very positive lately as witnessed by the widening gap between outlays and receipts.

For excellent commentary on the problems this poses, see Jeffrey Gundlach’s interview on CNBC yesterday.  The latest is due out at 2pm.  From Briefing.com:

Export and import prices are also due out (8:30am.)  These will get extra scrutiny to see what impact tariffs have had on prices so far.  And, Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10am) frequently impacts markets.

continued for members…

SPX closed below its SMA200 — not always the kiss of death, but indicative.

The big picture.

ES, breaking higher or a pre-opening head fake?

VIX remains elevated above 24.2, a good sign for bears.

The currency picture suggests continuing fireworks ahead.

And, despite the large bounces overnight, CL and RB continue to look weak.

Bottom line, as long as ES is sitting atop its SMA200, we can’t be sure whether SPX 2703 is in the works.  ES would have to shed its current 28-pt ramp job plus the 25 points SPX needs to reach 2703 from yesterday’s close.

With numerous Fed speakers out today, there’s a very good chance this ramp holds and the market rebounds.  But, I’ll believe it when I see SPX open and retake its SMA200.

GLTA.

 

 

 

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