Our forecast remains unchanged from last week — a very sharp drop this week, followed by a deeper drop the next. Needless to say, this goes against the grain.
Holidays are usually all about senseless melt-ups. So, I’ll look especially foolish or brilliant in the next week or so. As always, use appropriate stops.
We should get the next legs lower from RB, CL and USDJPY. And, VIX is likely to at least test the fan line from the February highs — think 26.50ish, depending on the timing. If it breaks that, things could get quite messy.
continued for members…
USDJPY is sitting at channel support, but I suspect it’ll break down, at least intraday.
I continue to ponder what a dovish December FOMC meeting would do to the USD.
Oil and gas have bounced as expected. It would make sense from them to continue lower here in support of SPX’s drop.
SPX’s path…if it’s allowed to play out:
And, the equivalent move in COMP:
As I mentioned last week, I’ll be taking this week off. I’ll hopefully be able to post a quick update tomorrow morning, as well.
GLTA.
Comments
2 responses to “Charts I’m Watching: Nov 19, 2018”
stunning accuracy so far!
the one which still has me scratching my head is Oil. Before end of this year, I was hoping you might share a long term view on Oil and maybe by default Dollar (“petrodollar”) One of your 20 yr charts last week on oil sort of screamed “Peak oil”. Does oil go out with a bang or with a whimper? Given the puppet strings being pulled on SA, I’m leaning towards a “bang”.
Thanks, tell your friends! Not sure how I’d characterize the oil forecast. But, for RB I’m thinking 1.497 around Dec 5 and 1.428 around mid-Jan. For CL, looks like 45.47 by mid-Feb with potential reversal/bounce at 51.47 any time. Having said that, either could bottom once stocks get to a “scary” enough level such as SPX 2648 or 2608 or COMP 6730. I would expect CL, especially, to play an important role in the rebound or breakdown at 2608.