Continuing yesterday’s theme of Mixed Messages, futures have been all over the map since yesterday’s close – sinking as low as 2626 on more tariff troubles and soaring up to 2684.50 (and, coincidentally, the SMA10) on tariff hopes.

Virtually all of our targets remain the same, though clearly we face substantial headline risk for the next few days.  From Powell: Slowing Global Growth two weeks ago…

I’m currently following a model which suggests that SPX will gap down on Monday or Tuesday to 2648ish, bounce for a few days, then down to 2608 around the 27th. This is a little earlier than the COMP chart suggests, so I’ve moved the COMP target to 6736 on Nov 27…This is where I think we’re headed.

This morning’s setup offers a clear path to 2608.  But, as usual, it will depend on USDJPY’s “breakout” and VIX’s apparent indecision.

continued for members…

AAPL could end up playing an important role this morning, the latest victim of tariffs.

VIX broke down briefly, but is potentially back on track. COMP needs one more big whoosh… ES channel still looks good, with this morning’s tag of the SMA10 weighing in on the bearish side. SPX’s equivalent… USDJPY remains a bit of a wild card. RB is still on the bulls’ side… …while CL has the potential to go lower.I have to step out for a meeting, will post more around noon.

GLTA.

UPDATE:  12:15 PM

Nothing new, really.  VIX is still on the bubble, and USDJPY is still pushing higher.  CL and RB have basically gone nowhere.  In short, the algos have no firm direction.

All it would take to push SPX/ES through their SMA10s is for VIX to break down — which hasn’t happened yet.

UPDATE:  4:00 PM

Absolutely no more clarity than there was at the open…  CL is practically unchanged.USDJPY is still threatening to break out, but hasn’t. COMP treaded water for another day. VIX held its TL – barely. And, SPX/ES didn’t break out…or down. I commented earlier about the December lows in recent years: the middle of the month in 2013-2015 and the 1st in 2016-2017.  Given the important Fed meeting coming up on the 18-19th, we could easily see this lows around that time.  But, it’s also possible that the dip I was anticipating today has been delayed a day or two.  I would continue to be cautious.