Another Moment of Truth

Continuing yesterday’s theme of Mixed Messages, futures have been all over the map since yesterday’s close – sinking as low as 2626 on more tariff troubles and soaring up to 2684.50 (and, coincidentally, the SMA10) on tariff hopes.

Virtually all of our targets remain the same, though clearly we face substantial headline risk for the next few days.  From Powell: Slowing Global Growth two weeks ago…

I’m currently following a model which suggests that SPX will gap down on Monday or Tuesday to 2648ish, bounce for a few days, then down to 2608 around the 27th. This is a little earlier than the COMP chart suggests, so I’ve moved the COMP target to 6736 on Nov 27…This is where I think we’re headed.

This morning’s setup offers a clear path to 2608.  But, as usual, it will depend on USDJPY’s “breakout” and VIX’s apparent indecision.

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