The Fed detests gold and silver because, like higher interest rates, they are a stark reminder of the soaring inflation the Fed hopes we’ll ignore.  Interest rates can be manipulated lower by buying up every bond in sight. The Fed has been doing this to the tune of $120 billion per month.

Gold and silver, on the other hand, can simply be shorted, which is exactly what has happened – once again breaking a significant long-term uptrend and dashing gold bugs’ hopes for a breakout.

Silver, having reached our next downside target, faces a particularly important test.

continued for members…The longer-term trend is the purple channel we’ve been charting for the past several years.By breaking down below that channel bottom – a risk we have been warning of for some time – the Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern is far less likely to play out and the bearish Fib patterns become more likely.

The downside potential is significant, particularly once the Mar lows (1673.30) are taken out. Targets start at 1587.50 and extend to 1529.90. If those break down 1364 is a real possibility. Does is make sense, particularly with inflation at such high levels? Of course not. But, if GC can’t break out with inflation above 5%, how will it do so if CPI drops back into a 3-4% range?

ZN has yet to confirm. It is still broken out from the falling purple flag pattern, but has obviously not yet made much upside headway.Silver, on the other hand, has fallen exactly to our downside target at pattern support.

If this rising purple channel breaks down, then it could really accelerate with 18.78 a reasonable target. If the channel holds, then it still has potential to 35.23.

Elsewhere on our charts, we have equities still subject to a 10% correction as soon as Thursday……despite the recent breakdown/beatdown in VIX. Currencies remain on track and are still mildly supportive of stocks — which have ignored EURUSD’s continuing decline and embraced USDJPY’s continuing but tenuous breakout.

CL and RB are having another bad day. But, like currencies, are coming off their recent highs at such a mild pace so as to not alarm equity algos.

Like the ZN chart, TNX continues to vacillate – with a growing gap between itself and CL.BTC, having broken out of the cloud, is testing the SMA200 again. A breakout would be very positive.

more later…