ORIGINAL POST: The dollar is making a stand at the upper end of the target range I charted Friday, but hasn’t yet broken out of the steep falling channel. While there was a turn at the .618 Fib that would justify a .786 completion (a Gartley), the more obvious Point B was at the .382. … continue reading →
Tag Archives: H&S
We’re getting a little more momentum going on the downside today. SPX completed the small H&S pattern I posted yesterday. It targets 1445 — approximately the .146 Fib of the 1266.74 – 1474.51 rally. DX completed its back test of the falling red channel and continues to show strong positive divergence. The RSI chart shows … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: 9:25 EST We remain short from SPX 1447 on Dec 18. The dollar is either finding support at a channel midline or about to find it at the bottom of a channel, depending on which channel ultimately holds. DX RSI shows great channel support either way. The EURUSD is still hanging in there, … continue reading →
The dollar broke down from its steepest channel (in white) as I suspected, settling into a consolidation that might flesh out the larger purple channel today or tomorrow before breaking out of the yellow channel it’s been in since Nov 12. My target remains the .618 at 79.319 on the purple grid. I say “might” … continue reading →
Oops. It’s a word you never want to hear from your pilot, your surgeon, or your fellow EOD tech. But, I could swear I heard a collective “oops” — and maybe even a few choice expletives — from TPTB when markets sold off during yesterday’s FOMC announcement of cheap money till the end of time. … continue reading →
“It was an expression used by small recon units and sniper teams in hostile terrain in Vietnam. They would tell one another to stay groovy when the danger level was so insanely high they popped amphetamines to stay awake and ready to rock twenty-four/ seven, because anything less would get them all killed. Stay groovy; … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST 9:25 AM SPX seems intent on reaching the next Fib level — the .618 of the 1433-1343 plunge at 1398.99 — before embarking on a significant B wave lower. But, the top of the new purple channel that’s been guiding us lower since mid-September is up above at 1401-1403, so there’s every chance … continue reading →
Bulls had quite the party last week. SPX broke through fan lines, Fib levels and resistance galore on decent volume and breadth, reaching our 1472 target in a big blowout party hosted by the ECB/GCC/FOMC. We discussed this target as far back as March 18 [see: Big Picture]. It was refined further a few weeks … continue reading →
Regular readers are well-acquainted with one of the tools we frequently use in forecasting VIX: the channels on its daily RSI chart. On April 18, with VIX at 18.70, RSI channels helped me forecast a high of 27.13 [see: VIX at a Crossroads.] VIX reached its yearly high of 27.73 on June 4. Being able … continue reading →
July 2, 2012 COMP appears to be following a set of channels within a much larger channel we identified months ago. Whether it has the wherewithal to rise up out of the large red channel remains to be seen. In the meantime, we’ll focus on the short to medium-term picture. … continue reading →