Taking another stab at VIX’s daily chart. Yesterday’s low of 17.09 was just .03 off the .786 Fib level of 17.12 we mentioned a couple of days ago [see: The VIX is In]. There are a couple of different interpretations. Fist: that the smaller (red) pattern is complete at the .886 and should reverse strongly. … continue reading →
Tag Archives: H&S
Earlier today [see: Close but no Cigarro], I opined as to how SPX wasn’t done back testing its IH&S because — among other reasons — VIX hadn’t even reached, let alone reacted off our target of 18.31 (the solid red line.) Never mind the “reached” part. VIX nailed our June 12 forecast right at the … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: 10:30 AM With tomorrow being OPEX Friday and the important Greek vote this weekend, the market is in wait and see mode already. But, we’re on Head & Shoulder watch, meaning the little games that market makers play just prior to options expiration might be a little more predictable. If you’ll indulge me, … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: 10:00 AM As Reeodd pointed out yesterday, there is a potential H&S setting up on the 60-min chart. I’ve been a little leery of it, as its completion would certainly alter the timing of the forecast currently in place. It’s highlighted below, and it targets somewhere around 1280. As we saw with the … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: 11:00 AM With all the volatility these past few days, VIX has put on a spectacular show — gaining 3.69 yesterday alone (18.6%). The weeks ahead promise to be just as exciting, but not for the reasons most expect. As discussed back on June 2 [see: Channeling VIX] the “fear index” was on … continue reading →
This morning’s hunch to fade the futures’ ramp was a good one [see: Mixed Signals.] “There’s a channel line just overhead at 1337.30 or so that should limit the current rally. Given the way the futures behaved overnight in equities, the dollar and the euro, I’m going to fade this ramped up opening and see … continue reading →
As a member correctly pointed out in his comment on XLF Update, a ramp in XLF would mean some big returns for important components such as BAC, C, JPM, etc. This is very true. Though it pains me to say it, I think banks are ready for a bounce. I sold all my remaining JPM, … continue reading →
Fridays before a holiday weekend have a tradition of being very, very quiet. Today seems to be no exception. Unless something weird happens, we’re aiming for a close around 1323, up a few points.
I wasn’t sure what to write about today until I got a great question from a reader, who hopefully won’t mind my reposting it here: Pebble, I enjoy your analysis, but are you really saying you bought at the low on Friday and you sold at the exact high yesterday? “After scalping a quick 36 … continue reading →
Our forecast remains on track. Since calling the 1422 top, we’re up a little over 20% on a cash basis (versus -6.5% for SPX) in a little over seven weeks. We’re likely to pause around 1330, as this represents a key TL on RSI as well as the neckline of one of our recent H&S … continue reading →