Our forecast remains on track. Since calling the 1422 top, we’re up a little over 20% on a cash basis (versus -6.5% for SPX) in a little over seven weeks. We’re likely to pause around 1330, as this represents a key TL on RSI as well as the neckline of one of our recent H&S … continue reading →
Tag Archives: H&S
ORIGINAL POST: 4:30 AM The analog I posted on April 9 [see: New Analog I’m Watching] accurately forecast the move from 1422 to 1357, back up to 1415, then down to 1292. As detailed in the last post [see: Why Bother], merely selling short SPX at the tops and buying in at the bottoms we … continue reading →
Some of you might remember this post from May 4. I was struck by the Fibonacci relationships in both time and price between the last two major H&S patterns, and thought it confirmed my view that the H&S top was ready to play out. We all know what’s happened since then, of course. The reason … continue reading →
Today’s action plays out well with the analog I first posted back on April 9 [see: Analog Watch] and charted on the 10th and 11th [Analog Details.] At the time, SPX had peaked at 1422, one point above a Butterfly target we identified on March 29 [see: All the Pretty Butterflies] and was on its … continue reading →
UPDATE: EOD SPX went straight to our 1338 target and hung around pretty much all day — closing right on the H&S neckline. The analog I first posted on Mar 9 is still very much on track. It called for the low 1300s by May 16 — which looks doable if we have another day … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: In yesterday’s post [see: Two Targets Down], I theorized we would go up and trace out a right shoulder to complete a small H&S pattern in the right shoulder of the larger (completed) H&S. So far, that’s exactly the way it’s playing out. As discussed, the perfectly-formed shoulder would take prices up around … continue reading →
Yesterday, we hit our initial downside target laid out over the weekend [see: So Far, So Good] when we nailed the Fibonacci .886 retracement of the Butterfly pattern (purple) we’ve been following since April 10. We bounced hard there, as the RSI chart indicated we might [see: 3rd Time a Charm] and completed a back … continue reading →
UPDATE: May 8, 2012 The past two forecasts are still holding up well. I still believe we’re likely to test the large red rising wedge as detailed below. The completed H&S pattern targets 2446, which the large red RW crosses around May 16. It also permits a wave down that doesn’t overlap with the October … continue reading →
Over the past 5 weeks, our forecasts have been remarkably accurate. The Butterfly pattern identified back on Mar 29 [All the Pretty Butterflies] correctly called the 1422 interim top. As anticipated on Apr 10, we got a bounce at 1357 (the .786 of the 1340-1422 rise) and began tracing out a head & shoulders pattern … continue reading →
As we close precisely on the trend line between the Oct 27 high (which kicked off a 112-pt Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern) and the just completed (for the 2nd time) Head & Shoulders pattern, I’m reminded of how little fundamentals have come to matter. Oh, and for any Fibonacci haters out there, check … continue reading →