pebblewriter

Tag: fibonacci

  • Yellen Goofs, Tells the Truth

    Two quotes by Janet Yellen, only hours apart.  The first clearly emphasizes the very real risk of rapidly rising inflation…

    “It may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn’t overheat, even though the additional spending is relatively small relative to the size of the economy.”

    …while the other clearly walks back the earlier assertion.

    “I don’t think there’s going to be an inflationary problem. But if there is, the Fed will be counted on to address them.”

    The reason for the second comment, of course, was the market’s reaction to the first – a tantrum, if you will.

    Most of us remember when, in 2013, Bernanke spooked the markets with talk of a rollback in bond purchases. Yellen did the same thing a few years later as Fed chair. This one is slightly different, as it highlights the facts which, by now, should be clear to everyone: inflation is a very real danger to the economy and the markets.

    Yellen’s retraction won’t change that.

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  • Update on Bitcoin: Apr 13, 2021

    It is fitting that BTC chose the day the latest CPI data is released to reach our next upside target.  From Bonds Not Buying It on Feb 23:

    BTC even managed a proper backtest of the last major Fib level, opening the door to the next upside target at the purple 3.618 extension at 62,977.

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  • Calm Before the Storm?

    There are many parallels between yesterday and Jan 26, 2018 – the calm before a vicious 10-day 11.8% storm.  The obvious one is that SPX is back to the top of the large yellow channel dating back to the 2009 lows.  Then, as now, this occurred shortly after SPX had bulled its way through a notable Fibonacci extension.There are other significant similarities.  Recall that then, as now, inflation was running hot due to a dramatic, extended rise in oil and gas prices which accompanied a dramatic, extended drop in the US dollar.  From US Dollar: Capitulation posted on Jan 26, 2018:

    …inflation fears remain a problem. In order to relieve those fears, oil and gas would need to drop — especially from the BoJ’s perspective. …they’re both far enough above Jan 2017’s prices to have generated adequate inflation for Jan 2018.  Needless to say, a 10-15% decline in CL/RB would be a drag on stocks, which are no doubt considering a backtest of the 2.24 Fib extension.

    The “inflation problem” in January 2018 was somewhat different from the one facing the Fed now. After months of CPI exceeding 2%, rising oil and gas prices threatened to push it and the 10Y up to 3%. It finally topped out at 2.95% and the 10Y reached 3.25% a few months later.

    Now, we face a dramatic spike from below 2% in February to over 3% in April unless oil and gas prices plunge right away. I remain convinced they will, but the clock is ticking.

    The Fed has said it sees the rise in inflation as transitory and is thus not concerned. More importantly – we should not be concerned. True, the YoY spike in gas prices will pass as the April 2020 plunge falls out of the comps. But, thanks to the Fed flooding the zone with cash, oil and gas aren’t the only problems. Most commodity prices are back above where they were in 2018 and are still rising.

    And, of course, the national debt that weighs in the balance is now over $28 trillion compared to only $20 trillion back then.

    Ordinarily, I might be tempted to ignore such patterns as the rising wedge in place in ES. Maybe not this time…

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  • Powell: Let’s Get This Party Started

    Jerome Powell gave a good news/bad news speech to the Economic Club of New York. He noted that employment is still 10 million below February 2020 levels and that a broader range of unemployment would put the current rate at 10%, adding, “We are still very far from a strong labor market whose benefits are broadly shared.”

    As the algos were spinning up their sell orders, he delivered the good news upon which the market relies: “Achieving and sustaining maximum employment will require more than supportive monetary policy.” He added that it could take “many years” to overcome the effects of long-term unemployment and scoffed at the idea of problematic inflation.

    From my vantage point, he’s right and he’s wrong. The strong earnings and cheerleading from pandemic lockdown beneficiaries have drowned out the wails from the pandemic’s have-nots: those who find that even a $1,400 stimulus check won’t pay the rent, the millions of small businesses and self-employed who couldn’t qualify for PPP loans, the millions for whom unemployment  benefits are unobtainable or inadequate.

    But, make no mistake about inflation. Yesterday’s CPI data reiterates our long-held conviction that, although official core inflation is mild, actual inflation is much higher.  Even the understated official CPI will soon soar to levels not seen since before the pandemic (when 10Y yields topped 2%) unless the manufactured rebound in oil and gas prices unwinds posthaste.

    The morning after, futures have regained most of their losses and are again knocking on the door of the 1.272 Fibonacci extension……thanks primarily to yet another VIX “breakdown” from its rising channel which, as we discussed yesterday, has produced another bearish (bullish for stocks) 10/20 SMA cross.Will it be enough to offset the cold water with which Powell just drenched the reinflation trade?

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  • Moment of Truth for Bonds

    ZN broke down from its rising red channel back on the 6th. Since then, it has found support in a falling channel – from which it is now threatening to break down.This is a moment of truth for bonds and the many correlated assets such as GC, shown above.  Stocks might not be amused.

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  • The Pandemic is Still With Us

    ES is now off 9.3% from its recent top (-7.8% from our Correction Warning), nailing our 3253 target overnight.  The decline has broadened from the overpriced tech stocks to include banks, energy and cyclicals.

    The factors we’ve been watching for the past three weeks are all bearish now, and bulls are starting to acknowledge the fundamental risks inherent in the economic and political landscape – not to mention an obvious uptick in coronavirus cases in many significant countries around the world. Contrary to politicians’ cheerleading and assurances of a successful vaccine just around the corner, the pandemic is still very much with us.

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  • What Could Go Wrong?

    The week is kicking off with a 75-pt ramp job from yesterday’s lows and will feature both a Fed meeting and OPEX. Oh, and VIX gapped down last night. What could go wrong?

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  • Update on COMP: Aug 26, 2020

    It’s been only two weeks since our last update on COMP in which we pointed out COMP might be running out of upside. In that time, the index popped up to an even more compelling reversal point.

    Due to its age, the rising white channel that dates back to 2009 is subject to a little wiggle room. What’s not subject to error, though, is the 2.618 Fibonacci extension at 11643.40.

    Today, COMP reached the intersection of that Fib and the white channel top – a strong sell signal for an index that seems to have forgotten how to decline.The thing is…it’s not the only sell signal our charts are giving us.

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  • Update on COMP: Aug 11, 2020

    COMP: the index that thinks it’s a beanstalk. It’s heavily weighted toward stocks which have done particularly well in the face of the global pandemic: AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, FB and GOOGL. So, a reversal at current levels would be a big deal.

    Investors might wish to know, then, that it just bumped up against a chart feature that suggests a reversal.COMP did a pretty good job of paying attention to channels over the years — at least until 2018. As we noted in our March 2018 update {see: Update on COMP], it had just arrived at our 7619.21 target – the top of a long-term channel and an important Fibonacci extension level. Our comments at the time:

    …with a FOMC rate hike due out tomorrow and more on the way, the range of possible outcomes is broad — from new highs to the next lower Fib level at 6227.06.

    It reversed as forecast, but pushed back above 7619 in June. The breakout was strong enough, but it fell back below 7619 in October, tagged our 6227 target, then spent almost a year trying to break out once and for all.By February 2020, it had popped nearly 30% above 7619. Then came the pandemic. The 33% plunge caught many true believers by surprise – though there were plenty of warning signs in both the index and its major components.

    The recovery was even more spectacular, with COMP gaining 68% since March 23. Given the amount of money that’s been thrown at the market, investors could be forgiven for believing the rally has plenty of room to go.

    The charts suggest otherwise.

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  • NFP Beats

    NFP increased by 1.76 million in July, beating estimates of 1.48 million. Futures popped on the news, almost turning green before deciding it was a non-factor – perhaps as Trump had already spilled the beans earlier in the week. Or, perhaps it was due to most of the job gains coming in food service and retail – categories which are susceptible to large downturns if slowdowns and shutdowns continue to make a comeback.

    The unemployment rate dropped from 11.1% in June to 10.2% in July, while U6 dropped to 16.5% – still a stunningly large number of unemployed Americans whose benefits have plunged in the past week.

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