I suspect this morning’s bounce is all about (1) jumping on stocks’ coattails, and (2) this support line: What hasn’t changed is: (1) there’s another margin hike coming Monday, (2) plenty of folks are still figuring out how to meet yesterday’s margin calls, and (3) JPM probably hasn’t zeroed out their short position yet, and … continue reading →
As I suspected, incredibly impressive employment numbers reported this morning! We can all go back to buying stocks, knowing that the economy is back on track….except for the 22% of Americans who are unemployed or underemployed (the way the BLS reported statistics up until 1994 when we decided that those unemployed longer than a year … continue reading →
Interesting that the trendline responsible for this morning’s bounce continued to play an important role all day long. We mentioned this morning that it currently stands at around 1335. While SPX was all over the map today, it respected this support and closed at 1335.10. Also, we’ve had 4 red candles in a row on … continue reading →
The market bounced off truly abysmal employment figures today. I suspect there’s one more push up to 1375-1390 before P[3] commences in earnest, probably around the middle of the month if the every 90 day pattern repeats (see 5/2 post.) Showing up again to provide the bounce? The trendline deriving from the Oct ’07 highs … continue reading →
Could be shaping up as a double-top. … continue reading →
The XLF has so far failed to retake a long-term trendline from August 2010. It broke through support on 4/14 and has failed to rise above it four times in a row. And, the latest push up has been on declining volume. More importantly, a downward sloping trendline dating back to 2/18 lies just ahead. … continue reading →
The Deutsche Bank suit could have a huge impact on the financials — a new front in the mortgage wars. Deutsche surely isn’t the only bank guilty of “reckless lending” and hoisting bad loans on the government. I’m looking to play the downside on BAC, C and WFC, especially after this morning’s run up. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/deutsche-bank-hit-with-us-mortgage-fraud-suit-2011-05-03 … continue reading →
Yesterday’s OBL rally was impressively thwarted, leaving us with a bearish candle and a possible top — albeit several points short of the overhead resistance mentioned in the last post. As expected, we broke down from the smaller of our two rising wedges. The larger wedge remains. One more push higher would make for a … continue reading →
These charts indicate a collision looming between: (1) the long-term wedge started March of 2009, (2) a more recent rising wedge starting April 15, (3) the long-term resistance line dating back to the early 1990’s, and, (4) the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the March ’09 lows. Note, both wedges are very long in the tooth, … continue reading →
A very long term support line comes into play as resistance. About to intersect with the rising wedge from March ’09 (daily) and the rising wedge from this past April 15 (hourly.) Then, there’s the .786 retracement off the March ’09 lows coming up at 1381.50. 50-100 (or more) point corrections every 3 months, give … continue reading →