Although the comparisons to 2007, the bearish technical indicators and the dismal fundamental backdrop are reason enough for me to be bearish, there’s one SPX chart worth revisiting. First, we were in a rising wedge from March 6, 2009 until June 1, 2011. We broke below the wedge and have been in backtest mode ever … continue reading →
Friday, the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) made a new high at 2433, a level not seen since Feb 2001. It got a lot of folks wondering whether SPX has another high on the way. It doesn’t, and here’s why. In 2001, when NDX peaked at 4816, it was a runaway. It had grown tenfold in less … continue reading →
UPDATE: 1:00 PM PDT Like SPX, BAC did very little for the rest of the day. Unlike SPX, however, this meant a continuation of the slow, steady decline it started this morning. While SPX traced out what is probably an ascending triangle, BAC has more of a pennant look to it, trending down on the … continue reading →
It puzzles me how, when the market does exactly what it’s expected to do, some folks take it as a sign that everything’s somehow changed. Late Tuesday night [Ten Lousy Points] I blogged for the 1,000th time about the similarities between this market and that of 2007. I pointed specifically to December 21, 2007 as … continue reading →
Now that our daily volume is up to 1,500 or so page views, it occurs to me this is getting a lot bigger than I originally expected. If it’s useful information for you, please take a minute and register as a follower. That way, I can get an idea who’s checking in and when, and … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: 10:50 AM PDT Just a little experiment here, to demonstrate how technical trading works. Bank of America, hailed as a screaming buy after losing only $8.8 billion in the latest quarter, is currently trading at about 10.24. It seems pretty well stuck in a descending channel that’s had BAC circling the drain since … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST 7:45 AM PDT Sorry for the delay in posting this. I’ve had my MacBook Pro hooked up to an external monitor, and every once in a while the video card does a swan dive. Going back to the trusty G4 for now. Anyway, 1344 was my target and here we are. My instruments … continue reading →
It has come to my attention that last night’s post was too obtuse. Apparently, the sarcasm was a little too thick for the message to get through. In an effort to be as clear as possible… Tomorrow is Christmas Eve 2007. If you’ve been following this blog, you know what that means and what to … continue reading →
Anyone who’s read this blog over the past couple of months knows I’m confident we’re following in the footsteps of the 2007 top (and most of the other significant tops since the 1930s.) If you’re new here, take 30 minutes and read through the posts listed here. Lots of euphoria in the markets today. Great … continue reading →
As we embark on the very last upleg of this topping pattern, it’s worth a reminder that we trade in a heavily-leveraged environment. Furthermore, it’s leverage that already doesn’t work at interest rates of 1.5%. What happens if markets decide 5% or 8% is the more appropriate risk-adjusted return? We have a multitude of negative … continue reading →