UPDATE: 3:00 PM Had a little more time to study this… It’s open to interpretation, but here’s what I’m seeing. I’ve stacked the Feb – May 2011 top over this 5 week consolidation and compared them point by point. There are a few discrepancies, but nothing that concerns me too much. The biggest question … continue reading →
POSTED: 2:40 PM This little pause brought to you by Fan Line C. Don’t worry, RSI and MCO promise plenty more downside to come. The H&S; completion is up ahead at around 1146. … continue reading →
You can’t make this stuff up. Seriously, it’s got all the elements of a Hollywood drama. From today’s WSJ: Jürgen Stark, chief economist (and chief hawk) of the ECB, just quit over the ECB’s decision to ramp up their version of QE. It leaves three Italians on the governing council versus only one German. That’s … continue reading →
Bears have been amply rewarded by the large H&S; pattern that completed in early August. The new ones now shaping up will make that one look puny by comparison. Pure speculation, but if the H&S; and Butterfly patterns play out on the daily chart [The Big Picture] we would complete a larger H&S; pattern. The … continue reading →
I took the day off from tree-watching to develop a better view of the forest. Here’s what I came up with. First, recall that harmonic patterns are what brought us to this point in time. They occur on a regular basis, and are believed to play out successfully about 70% of the time. Here’s one … continue reading →
UPDATE: 3:55 PM SPX bumping that internal trendline. Taking the rebound back as far as it can go without breaking the channel. I’ll call today a draw. Apparently both bulls and bears unwilling to extend themselves with so much at stake from Eurozone tomorrow. UPDATE: 2:35 PM The dollar continues to soar. DX is up … continue reading →
UPDATE: 3:30 PM The dollar’s had a good run today, but might soon be running into some technical headwinds. In a harmonic pattern that’ll probably end up being a Crab, it’s currently at its 1.272 XA and 2.618 BC extension. A properly formed Crab should see it reach its 1.618 XA extension at 75.153, but … continue reading →
UPDATE: 1:00 PM XEU v SPX: syncing up nicely the past couple of weeks, as they’re both an anti-dollar play. Ordinarily more of an inverse relationship. PM’s playing the same role, with GLD and SPX moving together as an anti-dollar play. USD v SPX: inverse relationship a bit stretched right now…. Has that “something’s gotta … continue reading →
UPDATE: 1:00 PM I’ve seen some huge manipulations of economic data before, but the July factory orders numbers from Census take the cake. Total for all manufactures goods fell almost 7.5%, from $472B to $437B. This is huge news. So, why wasn’t that the headline, instead of… Because, through the magical seasonal adjustment process, … continue reading →
UPDATE: 12:50 PM The more I look at Fan Line B, the more I like it as the upward limit here. I’m having second thoughts about 2011 having slowed relative to 2008. I’m looking at the alternative — that we’ve sped up again on a relative basis — and am growing more comfortable with it. … continue reading →