Message in a Bottle

Back on April 12 [see: Analog Details] I wrote:

To me, a drop to 1305-1317 seems fairly plausible.  The tricky part comes in calling for a reversal after SPX has fallen 120 points from its recent high.

Truth be told, I was really writing this note to myself  — a time capsule that would hopefully provide a little backbone.  I had a feeling I would begin to doubt the analog in the face of news bleak enough to produce that large a decline.

Now, as we approach the 120-point drop (patience, grasshoppers) within two days of the original target, am I still as confident?

Note that I revised the downside target to 1295.  The 1.618 of the purple Crab pattern is 1289, and the original H&S pattern targets 1295.  I chose 1295 over 1289 because I think it would give bulls fits to allow an overlap of the October 2011 1292 high.

On a day like today, when it’s all about Facebook and proving to investors that stocks are the golden ticket to riches, they simply won‘t allow that to happen.  It would do incredible damage to the message.

Look for some sort of stick-save language to come out of the G-8 either today or this weekend.

Are we there yet?  Maybe.  But, I wouldn’t even think about going long until SPX can break out of the channel on the 60-min chart (okay, I might think about it if we close at 1295.)


Message in a Bottle — 3 Comments

  1. wow, great call. We closed right at 1295. Did you go long? or still waiting for the break to the upside trendline before going long? Did you notice the explosion of volatility today as in UVXY/TVIX? It seems like the Pandora’s box has been opened!!

  2. On my SPX daily chart the 377 simple moving average today is 1287.55. Do you want to bet the price makes it there?