Today is the 5th session since ES tagged our 3076 target.  Four times it has bounced off the bottom of a very orderly, sharply rising channel — which is just what the doctor ordered.  Will today be the fifth?

continued for members…

The bigger picture shows SPX has jumped right back into the broken red channel……but has not broken back out of the rising white channel.ES’ channel has been much more orderly, with no breakdowns yet.

As SPX’s SMA50 is nudging up against its 2.618 at 3047, we have to be alert to the possibility of a plunge.  But, I wouldn’t bank on it, at least until ES’ channel breaks down.  At this time, that would equate to ES 3137ish.

The rationale, which could well be a head fake, is the intersection of the two TLs at 17.70ish on VIX’s’ daily chart. USDJPY is also still struggling, and has not broken above its SMA200 again. NKD is also going nowhere. And, I’m still looking for a breakdown of CL and especially RB.  I’ll post updated targets later today. Last, the 10Y is still going sideways, with a strong possibility of a bounce off its rising SMA200, as the 2s10s pulls back a little – supportive of a drop in equities.