Futures have rebounded modestly following yesterday’s drubbing.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index’s plunge from 108.7 to 103 did little to convince investors that the consumer is still doing well. Perhaps the more important question: will it outweigh, in the minds of FOMC members, the stellar 0.9% increase in August for core capital goods?

continued for members…

Note that VIX’s RSI is almost overbought. A rise above 70 has been very unusual lately. It hasn’t remained overbought for more than a day since Jan 2022.

I find the EURUSD chart quite interesting, and will be focusing on it over the next few days. It might very well be the key to stock prices unless the USDJPY breaks above our 149.12 target and the previous 151.93 highs. My sense is that the market remains in trouble and we’ll see lower prices between now and Oct 4. I would keep a close eye on EURUSD and SPX RSI, which has broken and is backtesting the last TL of support.