Futures are heading for another test of the 2.618 Fib extension at 3076.93, the fourth since last pushing above it on Monday.

There are numerous targets below, but that would mean cooperation from the algos – a rare commodity these days. The bearish case, however, is growing stronger every day.

continued for members…The bigger picture for ES and SPX shows a few potential falling channels that point to a potential July 6 tumble.  Since July 6 is the Monday following a 3-day weekend, we have to be wary of the potential for a meltup instead – particularly since it also follows the Q2 quarter-end.

The currency picture shows USDJPY struggling to stay aloft with a bearish alignment of the 10/20 and the SMA50 turning down again after dropping through the SMA200 in April.The NKD is also still under pressure.And, the EURUSD continues to sell off, though the rising SMA50 is a concern for bears.

If stocks do, in fact, plunge in the next two weeks, we’re likely to see DXY retest its March highs.Oil and gas are still in a holding pattern and still threatening a breakout.

While VIX still still playing things very close to the vest – having broken out of the falling white channel and pushing up near our 47.20 target, but now back below its SMA100 after the 10/20 cross earlier this week.

Bottom line, we know where the cliff is, we just can’t seem to get over it. With the SMA50 now above Monday’s lows, I still like the prospect of a SMA50 tag in the next day or two – though OPEX clearly argues against it.

Anything lower than ES 3076 is probably targeting the SMA200 and purple .618 at 3012-3014.  For SPX, anything lower than 3047 is probably targeting the SMA200 at 3015.77 or the channel midline around 3000.

We might have to wait, however, for either of those two events to unfold.

UPDATE:  3:40 PM

I’m really disappointed to have been right about the holding pattern as it’s getting really, really old. About the only nice trade setup to get excited about is EURUSD, which needs to plunge very soon in order to avoid the 50/200 golden cross.  I haven’t done the math, but I believe it’s going to have to drop through the SMA200 in order to avoid the cross.  Note that DJI is still coiling just below the SMA200.

And, TNX seems ready to make a move.VIX is hanging in there, still with the threat of a backtest of that TL and/or SMA200. USDJPY is still lingering… …while CL has broken out as we suspected it would – telling, I think.ES make any lower lows all day…no direction. …though SPX suggests the white channel is probably no bueno.