All the bullish factors which have kept stocks aloft the past two sessions are still going at it. Hence, the futures’ snoozefest even as Trump is about to be impeached.The only potential fly in the ointment remains oil and gas, which have reached an important decision point. continued for members… … continue reading →
Tag Archives: SPX
Inflation drives interest rates. Though the Fed probably wishes it didn’t, it’s an inconvenient truth. There are much tighter correlations, but consider the strong positive correlation between CPI and 10Y notes. This matters, of course, because with $22 trillion in debt, the US faces the same problem as the ECB and Japan: High interest rates … continue reading →
Today is the 5th session since ES tagged our 3076 target. Four times it has bounced off the bottom of a very orderly, sharply rising channel — which is just what the doctor ordered. Will today be the fifth? continued for members… … continue reading →
Today is off to an interesting start. Following Trump’s call for negative interest rates and more grandstanding on China in New York yesterday, headline CPI came in hotter than expected but right in line with our forecast. As we’ve discussed, this is the result of oil and gas trending sideways in support of the upcoming … continue reading →
It’s not too surprising that there’s been a firm floor under oil and gas prices, given the upcoming Aramco IPO. But, isn’t it funny how CL has popped above its SMA200 every single day this week, even in the wake of dismal inventory data? Just like it’s funny that ES, which pretty obviously should have … continue reading →
The approach of the FOMC meeting which begins today has been very good for stocks. There’s nothing unusual about this. Like OPEX dates, stocks almost always rally into such important lines in the sand. Most investors have lost track, however, of the fact that stocks have usually declined after such meetings.With SPX a few points … continue reading →
Housing starts and permits both fell, with starts missing expectations by a mile. Philadelphia Fed index also fell and saw a big miss. Capacity utilization and industrial output both missed and fell. So, naturally, the OPEX-obsessed S&P 500 futures are up 10 points. If things seem a little upside down at this point, know that … continue reading →
More fun and games from the market-rigging department… If SPX’s rally has impressed you, check out the Nikkei. Since its Aug 26 lows, NKD is up a whopping 13.8% — more than twice SPX’s impressive 6.0%.Do what I did and google “Japan” and “economy” for the past month and you’ll see nothing but negative stories … continue reading →
In The Matrix, Morpheus presents Neo with a choice between a red pill and a blue pill and explains: You take the blue pill, the story ends. You wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill, you stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep … continue reading →
ES spent 6 1/2 hours yesterday anguishing over the trend line/neckline we discussed. When the Fed minutes came out, it even broke down a bit from the rising channel it had constructed overnight. The breakdown seemed like it was sticking. But, just after the close, WTI spiked and VIX dumped. That’s all it took to … continue reading →