I’m guessing this isn’t the result President Trump was hoping for when arm-twisting (or was it horse trading?) Russia and Saudi Arabia into the “beautiful deal” he continues to tout.
Apparently, he forgot to convince pretty much every analyst and trader out there that a 10 million bpd cut could offset the 25 million bpd in excess production.
Not even the algos are buying the line that this stinker will stabilize prices. Even before this morning’s abysmal Retail Sales and Empire Manufacturing data, futures were off a bundle. Thanks to yesterday’s nonsensical ramp, however, the drop was from a much higher level and the latest H&S Pattern was busted. 
Cue the talk about opening the country on May 1.
continued for members…Oil is in danger of breaking down to its 2001 lows. A drop through 19.27 would be reason enough to revert to short with 17. 12 and 10.65 the only support between here and zero. A bounce here would be reason enough to go long. Either position calls for tight stops. 
While RB continues to hold that channel.
Stocks will backtest, but what?
As we’ve discussed, it’s too late to backtest the yellow neckline without the white channel also breaking down. This would likely signal the end of rally/bear market bounce.
VIX continues to suggest there’s more downside, with the SMA10 at 45.29 and our nice backtest target at 46.76ish.
COMP’s push through its SMA200 is looking like a pretty good head fake. The key level to watch is 8398.95.
Likewise, DJI’s failure to hold its 2.24 Fib at 23,781 would be quite bearish. 
USDJPY is feebly trying to bounce. Who knows, maybe it’ll come through.
In the meantime, EURUSD is back to helping DXY break out. 
On the bond front, the 2s10s has plunged back below the white TL, but now has to worry about the rising red TL at .43ish.
The 10Y is pretty much where it has been, bouncing off the yellow .236 line but still below the 1.272 Fib. The next step lower remains the 1.618 at 1.54. 
The view from ZN’s standpoint. 
The 2Y is back below its next to the lowest horizontal support. Remember, there is no support below 17 bps.
The squiggles…
UPDATE: 12:10 PM
Quick update on things…
ES is trying hard to hold the white channel .236 line. The red neckline/TL crosses 2728.79 around 12:30 or 1:00.
There’s not a real strong equivalent for SPX – so I think ES’s support/resistance levels will matter for now – with the 2.24 and the channel bottom at 2703 mattering for SPX.
The 2s10s is on the precipice of a big bearish move – a drop through the red TL at .43.
The 2Y is also flirting with danger – a drop through .17.
VIX has broken above that SMA15-200 and its SMA50 – but hasn’t taken off just yet. It would provide a strong signal if it did.
CL continues to be a big drag. It’s making very slightly higher lows…
…but, is clearly scaring the crap out of algos. 
Yes, the USDJPY bounced…but not yet enough to matter.
UPDATE: 3:15 PM
ES has made up a bunch of its earlier losses, but just slammed into its SMA5 200 – often a roadblock – while SPX keeps meandering around, seemingly lost.
VIX has dropped through its SMA50, but it’s not very convincing. I still like the SMA10 or intersection target.
Even CL’s bounce is pretty half-hearted.
The most interesting charts to me remain the Dow, which is back below its 2.24 extension…
…and COMP, which is back above its SMA200.
It’s a tug of war which could go either way. But, at the end of the day, should the overall market continue rallying because Amazon was able to take more market share from the thousands of other retailers that are going out of business every day? I agree. I think the bears win this one.
Remember, more bad news is on the way.
