The financial press usually starts to take things seriously about this point in a correction. The permabulls aren’t calling bottoms any more, while the bears are licking their chops. It never fails, someone on TV says something like “no one saw this coming.” It’s silly, of course. What they mean is that they didn’t see … continue reading →
Tag Archives: oil
Remember how excited the bulls were about the reflation trade? Higher interest rates meant the economy was reopening at a good clip. What could be better than that? Things look a little different from the perspective of 3%+, don’t they? Nothing alarming here… Remember, it’s not the inversions that bite, but the spikes higher which … continue reading →
Today’s FOMC meeting is one of the most anticipated and consequential in years. It’s difficult to overstate its importance in terms of economic impact and, perhaps more importantly, Fed credibility. Yes, we care about whether the Fed hikes 50 or 75 basis points – though either is unlikely to put a dent in inflation. The … continue reading →
Yankee great Yogi Berra famously advised that “when you come to a fork in the road, take it.” The S&P 500 is weighing such a decision this morning, having closed Friday at a critical level of technical support. A rebound from here would buy the Fed a little more time for inflation and hawkishness to … continue reading →
Futures came roaring back into the falling white channel yesterday, revealing what many know but few say out loud: the market is broken. When expectations of a 1% quarterly rise in GDP yield, instead, a 1.4% decline, stocks should decline. Plain and simple. The old “bad news is good news” argument doesn’t work any more … continue reading →
The dollar index continues its tear, surpassing both its 2017 and 2020 highs this morning. This is consistent with our forecast [see: Apr 11 Update on Currencies] that the Fed would need help from a rising dollar to attack inflation without having to resort to sky-high interest rates that would further accelerate the growth of … continue reading →
Yesterday marked the fourth time in the past two months that SPX tested the same important Fib level. The failure to maintain a trend is becoming…well, a trend. Will SPX keep playing the same old song or is it finally time for this trend to be broken? continued for members… … continue reading →
ES closed back in its falling white channel following its midday recovery, keeping our target price and date unchanged. Note: The current forecast page has been updated with targets for SPX, ES, COMP, VIX, USDJPY, EURUSD, DXY, GC, SI, BTC, CL, RB and the 10Y. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are keying off the exact same factors as yesterday. USDJPY is creeping higher and VIX is threatening a breakdown. Traders continue to face an array of headfakes and misdirection as ES backtests its 200-DMA yet again. continued for members… … continue reading →
Forget the fundamentals. Between USDJPY’s breakout and VIX’s smackdown (19% over the past two sessions), the bears are getting pummeled by algos. As a result, ES’ falling white channel has been busted – meaning at least a delay in any additional downside. continued for members… … continue reading →