VIX Forecast: June 12, 2012


With all the volatility these past few days, VIX has put on a spectacular show — gaining 3.69 yesterday alone (18.6%).  The weeks ahead promise to be just as exciting, but not for the reasons most expect.

As discussed back on June 2 [see: Channeling VIX] the “fear index” was on track to complete a Crab Pattern (in purple below) and fulfill its Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern target.  These were targets originally set back on April 18 [see: VIX at a Crossroads.]  With VIX at 18.70, we forecast a high of 27.13.

It topped out at a nearly perfect 27.73 on the 4th and has been sliding ever since — with yesterday being the notable exception.  Now, as many investors are wondering which way is up anymore, we’ll plot out what appears to be a very clear path forward.



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