Tag: forecast

  • Not Exactly Reassuring…

    The markets weren’t exactly reassured by Powell’s testimony yesterday.  Bottom line, no one in their right mind buys the idea that we can have such strong GDP and wage growth but still need such accommodative policy. IMO, Powell was curt and sometimes downright evasive, which didn’t help matters.

    Stocks plunged to our initial downside target, closing well below the SMA10 (a rarity, lately) with additional downside potential this morning.

    AAPL tested its channel top and retreated.  As we discussed yesterday, this failure to break out has weighed on the overall market.continued for members(more…)

  • Boeing: Fixed?

    Two weeks ago, after Boeing’s second 737 Max 8 crashed, I suggested the most obvious outcome from a charting standpoint [see: One Step Forward, Two Steps Back.]

    Obviously, BA is reacting to the second crash of its key 737 Max 8.  But, its chart already argued for a downturn before the latest tragedy.First order of business will be to close the gap at 369ish.  If it can’t hold at 369, look for it to test the SMA200, the .618, or potentially the .786 Fib well ahead of schedule.

    BA closed the gap that morning, then worked very hard to bounce.  Unfortunately, despite the company’s best efforts (and, no doubt a few billion in buybacks) the stock has had a hard time staying airborne.

    From a charting standpoint, there just wasn’t much support at the original bounce point.  As we forecast, the 200-day moving average and potentially the .618 Fib at would likely need to come into the picture.  That’s why the stock has spent over two weeks in limbo.

    And, that’s why someone dumped a bunch of shares at 4:30 yesterday — 30 minutes after the market had closed for the day.  It took all of two minutes for the stock to drop from 370 to 359, and four minutes for it to recover.  No fuss, no muss.The plunge won’t show up on the daily chart……but, it’s on the hourly chart and — the company hopes — in the memory banks of those who are betting that the company needs more than a software update to restore public trust in its products.Meanwhile, ES’s small white channel broke down overnight.  All targets remain in force, with this morning’s EIA inventory report likely playing a pivotal role in next steps for the overall market.

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  • The Plunge the PPT is Really Protecting

    The call the President’s working group the Plunge Protection Team, presumably because it protects the market from plunging.  It think they’ve got it wrong.  What it really does is protect plunges in volatility that, in turn, trigger algos to buy stocks.

    The VIX smackdown that Mnuchin’s Plunge Protection Team unleashed on December 24 has now reached 65%……with the latest overnight plunge taking out both horizontal support and a key Fibonacci retracement level.In the process, ES is making new highs after breaking down from its rising wedge and a rising channel. It’s a wonderful gimmick that almost always works as long as the other factors are on board — an important caveat on days like today.

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  • Buy, Machines, Buy!

    I was on the road yesterday, so I listened to CNBC on XM while tooling around town. I lost count of how many pundits sounded downright angry about how the market was melting up. “It makes no sense!” they cried, citing countless statistics from plunging retail sales to plunging earnings expectations. Not one of them brought up VIX.In a market where most of the trading is by computers which are merely responding to preprogrammed signals (aka algorithms) it has become quite simple to nudge the market one way or another.

    Given that COMP has really struggled to get and stay above its SMA200, VIX is telling the computers to buy. It already got the ball rolling by plunging below its SMA200 and is now reiterating the signal by simply breaking down below the red channel bottom.This is a well-worn trick, illustrated best by the period 2015-2016. Every time SPX needed to get back above its SMA200 (in order to delay the 1823 tag until the channel bottom arrived in Feb 2016)……VIX was there with an assist, dropping below its own SMA200 (the red moving average.) When things got really dicey and a big push was needed, VIX broke down below the well-established trend lines (below in red.)Now that it’s doing the same thing again, and oil and gas, interest rates and currencies are all following suit, the message is unmistakable: buy, machines, buy!

    Will the few remaining carbon-based investors also comply?

    continued for members(more…)

  • If at First You Don’t Succeed…

    Yesterday’s setup for the e-minis looked pretty straightforward: a drop through the 200-day moving average and backtest of the 2.24 Fibonacci extension at 2729. Futures had already dropped through the 200-DMA and were heading south when the dismal retail sales data dropped.

    I hedged my bet, redrawing our daily downside target to include the 10-DMA — just a few points below the Fib extension.Fifteen minutes into the session, as ES reached 2730.25, the headlines started dribbling in.  Fed Governor Lael Brainard publicly commented that QT should end this year, ahead of schedule. Larry Kudlow commented that there was a glitch in the retail sales data.  Mnuchin felt all warm and fuzzy about the trade talks.

    Faster than you could say “Plunge Protection Team” ES reversed course and SPX closed the day with a gain.  But, the move didn’t feel finished. As I wrote at the end of the day:

    ES looks likely to test its SMA200 all over again. But, will it make it on down to the 2.24? Its SMA10 will probably be up to 2728 by tomorrow morning, adding additional support.

    I guess the market fairies were listening, because that’s exactly what happened overnight. ES dipped to 2729 right as the SMA10 was arriving on the scene, then spurted 27 points higher — breaking out of the falling white channel in the process.The algos are in full support mode at present, though a few charts suggest a pop and drop is in the cards if VIX doesn’t pull off a game changing plunge.

    continued for members(more…)

  • Delay of Game

    Nothing much has changed since yesterday.  SPX bounced around in our target zone, coming within a few points of its SMA200 as VIX went nowhere.

    The one notable exception was AAPL, which after tagging our downside target on Jan 3 $from last November [see: AAPL Discovers Gravity] reached our upside target yesterday. We originally charted this upside target on Jan 3 [see: Update on AAPL, Jan 3] and the IH&S pattern reinforced it three weeks later.  Had AAPL not reversed, the additional downside potential was substantial.

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  • Manipulation is Nothing New

    Yesterday, former SEC attorney Teresa Goody joined those calling for an investigation into the market action on December 24.

    It was hardly the biggest move we’ve seen over the past year. But, it resulted in new lows that ruffled a few feathers.

    Click the image to watch the interview, or just keep reading.

    Goody: …when you have these wide swings in the market, 400, 500, 600 points, 2 to 3 percent, I think that’s a clear indication that there is some sort of a market structure issue, so the SEC will have to investigate, I think, and also FSOC look into why there’s this volatility because it’s not fair to everyday investors, it’s not fair to all investors, really. And it really goes to the fair and efficient markets that we have.

    Melissa Lee and Kelly Evans of CNBC could have left it there. But, to my surprise and to their great credit, they challenged Goody’s statement — eliciting a nonsensical stream-of-consciousness response that rivaled one of the best deer-in-headlights word salads ever.

    Lee: Would, [by] the same token, the SEC investigate big up days?

    Goody: [long pause] I think that big up days are a little different from down days…

    Lee: Why? Doesn’t that speak to market structure as well? If you have the same circumstances that lead to a rise in the Dow of 3% on thin volume, why wouldn’t you investigate that?  If it’s really on the basis of market structural issues, why wouldn’t you investigate that?

    Goody: Well, for one thing, it’s about market loss and investor loss.  And, so, while I think that that’s important to look at too, it’s more important to look at the loss because you have things like the high frequency traders, for example, and, so, once there’s a massive sell off, you have the ability for people in the market like high frequency traders to get out early. And, then, once the market starts coming around, to come up and buy in low, so they sell high buy low.  And, then, the average investor is going to act less quickly than the high frequency trader for example, and they’re going to lose money. And, then, with this volatility everyday investors are very confused by that. They hear “oh Apple’s doing very poorly, or Apple’s doing very well and so maybe I should buy or sell.”  And, the average investor is going to act more quickly to, uh, minimize loss than they are to get a gain.

    Evans: Teresa, I don’t quite follow that.  If they’re front running, they’re front running. Whether they’re shorting or they’re on the long side, either way if you’re front running the public, and that’s a market structure issue, we talked about this a couple of years ago…it’s one thing for investors to…lose money, as you said, but if you also can’t buy something because it’s artificially moved up 10%, you’ve also lost out. So, it’s gotta go both ways or it doesn’t hold water, right?

    Goody: I agree with you.  And, I think that the bigger concern is when investors are losing a lot of money. But, I completely agree that there’s also an issue when investors can’t get in because it’s artificially high.  And, this goes to your point, too, is that what we’re trying to find is the real valuation.  So, anything that negates the integrity of the real valuation of a stock is something that has an impact on the market integrity and the market structure. And, so I agree, it’s big ups and big downs.

    But the SEC and, I think regulators, is more concerned with everyday investors losing a lot of money rather than not being able to get money and the gains because there’s more of an impact there, especially when its 500 or 600 points decrease.  But, I think they need to look into both and this way, also, when you’re looking at a decline, whether there’s front running, whether you know, some traders are able to sell high and start a sell off, and anticipate a big sell or a big purchase, and then they can get in front of that too, so those are issues where you can get more of the manipulation and the fraud.

    On that holiday-shortened trading day, the S&P 500 opened down 16 points and closed down 49 points. It’s highlighted in blue in the chart below.I couldn’t agree more that an investigation is warranted.  In fact, it’s high time the SEC investigate the rampant market manipulation that occurs on a regular basis.  Let’s start, though, with the much more frequent instances where the manipulation results in huge gains in the markets.

    On the 24th, members will remember, Mnuchin called in the Plunge Protection Team — which aptly manipulated markets into a sharp recovery by crushing VIX to the tune of 50%.This is a common occurrence as we saw again last night.  After five sessions of declines, ES broke out overnight and is currently showing a 25-pt gain.The primary reason?  Again, VIX — which was slammed by over 5% overnight and 23% since Wednesday.By all means, let’s investigate market manipulation.  But, if we really care about market integrity, let’s investigate those manipulating it in both directions.

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  • AAPL Discovers Gravity

    A quick update on AAPL, which has reached two of our downside targets today…

    As we discussed prior to AAPL’s earnings report [see: All Eyes on AAPL] the stock had a gap to close and 200 DMA to backtest.  The danger in reaching both targets was that AAPL would have to descend below the triangle top above which it broke out in August [see: Focus on the FAANGs.]  But, as we discussed, this wouldn’t necessarily be all that alarming.

    A drop to 200 or so wouldn’t do much to dent bulls’ enthusiasm. Even a drop to the SMA200, currently at 192.17, could be passed off as a base-building exercise.

    It’s been almost two weeks since AAPL posted earnings, and it just reached its SMA200, (one day after closing the gap) posting a low today of 191.45 — an 18% drop from its Oct 3 highs.  Needless to say, some bulls are getting nervous.

    A quick glance at the weekly chart shows why.  If the rising red channel from 2016 doesn’t hold, it’s quite a ways to the first serious support down at the purple channel midline.  Maybe it’s time to expand the company’s stock repurchase plan.Don’t own any AAPL? Wondering why you should care?  Drops through AAPL’s 200-DMA have been a trap door to some big swoons for the overall market.

    With our yield curve model and oil/gas charts screaming “short!” I’d give better than even odds that AAPL’s channel and the overall market are headed lower.  If AAPL closes below its SMA200, I’d say it almost certain.Stay tuned.

    UPDATE:  Nov 14, 2018 – 3:45 PM

    AAPL closed below its SMA200 and its red channel is failing.  As we noted a couple of weeks ago, the nearest significant support is now the .618 Fib at 144.48. (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Nov 5, 2018

    Futures are back to flat, having bounced a bit on the Iran sanction news as it provided a modest (so far) bounce for oil and gas prices.The market has a wait and see feel to it this morning, with AAPL breaking down further……but, the algos all but ignoring it, focusing instead on dollar strength (TNX is higher again) and oil’s potential recovery.  AAPL is now off almost 14% and is nearing our channel target [see: All Eyes on AAPL] with the gap close target of 195.96 and SMA200 target (currently 192.44) looking better all the time.

    Members might wish to revisit last week’s post on VIX [see: VIX’s Warning] in which we discussed the bearish implications of the impending 50/200 cross.  This morning, it’s alive and well.continued for members

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  • Appearances

    Credit: REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

    It is often said that there are two sides to every story and, somewhere in middle, lies the price of oil.  Okay, I paraphrased that just a bit.

    But, isn’t it odd that the day after the Saudis threaten $400/barrel oil, Donald Trump suddenly embraces the ludicrous “rogue killers” theory for the death of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi?

    It appears that after days of vehement denials of any involvement, the Saudis suddenly remembered that Khashoggi was, in fact, assassinated and dismembered in their Turkish embassy (Saudi operative: “Oh, yeah…that guy that we chopped up with a bone saw?  I had forgotten all about that!)

    After a 20-minute conversation, the president who fell in love with Kim Jong-un also came to terms with Saudi King Salman.  Was it love?  To quote the master of the deal, himself, who knows?

    But since Trump is desperate to reverse the rise in gas prices, inflation, and interest rates between now and November 6 (and, to salvage billions in arms sales) don’t be surprised if we get that next leg down in oil prices very soon.  Nobody knew the economy could be so complicated!

    And, while we’re on the topic of government prevarication, the much-delayed September Treasury Statement was finally released yesterday.  Anyone notice something odd about September outlays?  Did we really see a plunge in every expense category?  Or, maybe, someone decided to massage the numbers just a bit to prevent the report of a $1 trillion deficit.  Appearances, again.

     

    Nah…then we’d surely see other efforts to obfuscate the country’s fiscal plight.  For instance, they’d never allow charts like this one from the August report.

    The same chart in September…  (appearances, indeed!)continued for members(more…)