While January’s retail sales saw a modest rebound (+0.2% MoM), December’s were revised downward from -1.2% to -1.6%.

Futures bumped slightly higher, presumably because a slowing economy protects the market from Fed tightening.  In reality, it was driven by continuing VIX algo-signalling.

With key DJIA component Boeing off sharply in the pre-market, today could be a tumultuous day.

Obviously, BA is reacting to the second crash of its key 737 Max 8.  But, its chart already argued for a downturn before the latest tragedy.

First order of business will be to close the gap at 369ish.  If it can’t hold at 369, look for it to test the SMA200, the .618, or potentially the .786 Fib well ahead of schedule.

continued for members…

Stocks had a nice bounce at the close on Friday, responding as it normally does when VIX breaks down below a TL and its SMA200.

While ES reached its 2.24……SPX has not yet. CL and RB are getting a boost from Saudi Arabia’s announcement of a supply cutback. But, the currency picture is still not positive for stocks. Rates look likely to continue weakening. The Dow should be under pressure from BA, but helped by AAPL.

While working on the Big Picture last week, I stumbled across some intriguing patterns involving oil, interest rates and stocks — some of the most interesting patterns I’ve ever seen.  I’m in the process of sussing out the details and implications, and hope to have them posted later today.

I’ll sign off for now, but return later if conditions deviate from expectations.