We’re off to a quiet start so far, with futures up a few points in sympathy to rising oil and gas prices — both up over 1% — and, a bounce in the dollar index.

OPEC is slated to meet over the weekend, and it’s not unusual to see oil rally in advance of a policy meeting.  It’s also not unusual to see the leader of the free world resort to Twitter to express his dissatisfaction with oil prices which are rising largely as the result of his own policies.

Speaking of which, Walmart is the latest (and largest) retailer to warn of higher prices as the result of Trump’s proposed tariffs.

continued for members…

VIX rose slightly overnight, but likely positioning itself for another decline.

As we discussed after hours yesterday, SPX is still yet to declare which channel it’s following.  It is positioned to break out of the small, rising white channel.  But, the last time it did so in late August, it didn’t hold.

Its immediate target is the purple 1.618, after which we’d likely see a backtest — with the white 1.272 the next higher goal.  TNX remains broken out, but failed to make new highs and feels overextended to me.The euro is giving back some of yesterday’s strength……which means DXY is getting a reprieve.USDJPY is toying with the idea of a breakout — definitely worth keeping an eye on, as the .886 and broken white channel backtest await.Like SPX, ES is angling towards its 1.272.But, we’ll see what happens this weekend in Algeria.  CL and RB are long, long overdue for a correction.  Combined with USDJPY running out of steam and VIX due for a breakout, this would not bode well for stocks.On a personal note, I’m afraid I overdid it at the gym the other day.  My back is killing me and I’m only comfortable lying flat on my back.  I’m going to sign off for the day.  Wishing everyone a good trading day and a great weekend…