Oil’s Balancing Act

Many readers have been asking about oil.  It’s not that I haven’t been interested, it’s just been a real bear to analyze.  Here, after a dozen hours of racking my brain, is where I see it.

Like many stock indices and currencies, Crude Light (CL) is at a critical stage.  It reached 114.83 after breaking out of a diamond pattern in April 2011, only to back test the diamond six months later at 74.95.  It then retraced .886 of that plunge, setting a lower high of 110.55 in February before plummeting once again as low as this morning’s 81.21 (the .886 is just below at 79.01.)

CL now balances on a precipice, where a move in either direction is likely to be huge.  We’ll examine why, and which course is more likely.



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