As the currency turmoil continues, it’s interesting to note that cryptocurrencies are having a worse go of it than EMs.
Meanwhile, futures dipped enough overnight to finally backtest the SMA10. They’ve since rebounded enough to backtest the broken red channel. 
It remains to be seen whether SPX will join in and backtest its SMA10 and whether both can manage a backtest of their January highs.
On the commodity front, RB finally tagged our next downside target — cratering 4.5% from yesterday’s highs.
continued for members…
Keep in mind that while we could see a sharp rebound, there is still a very good case to be made for 1.89 later this month.
CL, which never quite tagged its SMA200 on Aug 16, supports this scenario – especially if/when it breaks below its SMA100.
For SPX, the SMA10 and the Jan highs remain legit targets — though it’s important to note that the SMA10 rose to the level of yesterday’s lows.
The currency picture remains pretty much the same from yesterday.
DXY is backtesting the latest fan line it broke down through — but, we won’t read too much into it until we see some lower lows. It has already missed the most obvious backtest point at 91.588. 
USDJPY is very near the dealine for a break to 113.59 – presumably to rescue stocks from today’s or tomorrow’s lows.
VIX still hasn’t reached its SMA200, lending our downside equity targets additional credence.
And, for those waiting for TSLA to trigger a short position…it did last night — breaking below the purple TL at 297 just after midnight. It even dropped through horizontal support (the red TL) at 290.
Remaining potential support consists of horizontal support (previous lows) at 286.13, 273.42 and 244.59. There is also Fib support at 258.95. I think it’s a very legit short, but keep in mind this is a CEO who loves to manipulate his stock. Use stops.
Over in the bond market, TNX has bumped a little higher – testing the internal fan line and threatening another return to the triangle top.
If prices break out (yields break down), the ideal timing would be breaking out around Sep 13 (CPI announced) and reaching our 122’140 target around Sep 17.
UPDATE: 10:22 AM
ES just reached 2878.50, but note that SPX still has several points to go to reach its Jan highs. I’d expect a bounce from e-mini traders, but SPX really should reach 2872.87. Otherwise, there isn’t an actual backtest and the “support” will be somewhat suspect.
I expect SPX to bounce at 2872.87, but it’s worth reviewing lower support. Note the SMA20 at 2864.76, the intersection of the red TL and red channel .236 line at 2850, the white channel midline and .886 at 2834.09, and red channel bottom and SMA50 at 2817.35.
UPDATE: 10:48 AM
Good place for the bounce to peter out…but, it’s not unusual for these bounces to take all day to break down in the last few minutes of the session. If it doesn’t reverse here, there’s also a backtest of the broken SMA10 at 2886.41.
Playing devil’s advocate, the reason it might not bounce much is because this is a “beneficial” drop — one which strengthens the bull case (assuming it can be arrested at 2872.)
I think this would be an ideal time for VIX to bottom out at the SMA100 and run up to the SMA200.
BTW, I spent several hours on the phone yesterday with my hosting company trying to figure out why the site has been going down from time to time lately. Apparently, it’s a volume issue which will require some changes to the way the site is set up.
Since we’re in wait and see mode at the moment, I’m going to take the rest of the day to work on it. It’s entirely possible it’ll spill over into tomorrow morning. If, for any reason, there are issues with getting the site up and running, I’ll post on the old pebblewriter.blogspot.com and/or use Twitter.
Only 1/4 of members have taken advantage of our member-only Twitter page @pebbletrades. I often tweet out notifications of targets being reached, forecasts being changed, etc. When you follow @pebbletrades, I’ll be notified and will approve you as a follower. If your Twitter handle doesn’t match your name, just contact me with the info and I’ll make sure you get added.
More later.
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